Hurricane 'BUD' has Unexpectedly Strengthened today to NEARLY a Category 3 Hurricane, (clocking in at 100 Kts. in the most recent imagery from the NRL website), with central pressure estimated to be down to 961 mb.
But the latest advisory is holding it at 95 Kts. for the time being, with 100 Kts. quite easily attainable overnight.
AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING BUD AND ON THE FIRST PASS THROUGH THE CENTER THE PLANE MEASURED A MAXIMUM 700-MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 108 KT AND A MAXIMUM SFMR ESTIMATE OF 89 KT IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT.
BASED ON THESE DATA, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 95 KT, ALTHOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE PLANE COULD FIND STRONGER WINDS ONCE IT FLIES THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.
Hurricane 'Bud' WAS expected to max out around 70-75 Kts. at this time yesterday. I had speculated, and then deleted from my previous post, the ever-present possibility of 'explosive deepening' and rapid intensification.
But then when I saw how *tightly clustered* the intensity guidance was, unanimously peaking at 70 kts., I actually redacted the paragraph in which I had 'intuitively' surmised (correctly!) the possibility of exactly that: Explosive Deepening.
ALL of the Intensity Guidance was Far Too Low !!
Those familiar with my style of posting, know that I often post, year after year, about the issue of Unexpected Intensification, still very much remaining one of the greatest challenges for hurricane forecaster and researcher alike.
And with regard to 'Bud's TRACK Guidance? That's been no picnic for the guys at the NHC, either.
Several advisories HAD Hurricane 'Bud' approaching, but not quite making, landfall about 1/2 way between Manzanillo and Puerto Villarta, but then suddenly REVERSING it's track at a nearly 180 angle, and sending it back AWAY from the coastline again.
However, the most recent advisory just out 1 1/2 hour ago, has 'Bud' making landfall once again, and this time as a hurricane. Hurricane / Tropical Storm Warnings are now posted for a section of the coastline, as shown below.
The reverse of course is still expected, as the system will then be ejected off of the Mexican coast by developing high pressure to it's east, interestingly similar to how the models seem to want to do with Invest 94L in the Atlantic!
More on Hurricane 'Bud's ongoing and forecast track and intensity to be posted overnight ...
"Don't Get Stuck on Stupid" - General Honore, following Hurricane Katrina
Edited by CoconutCandy (Thu May 24 2012 07:05 PM)