Loc: Orlando, FL
TS Debby Heads East Toward Cedar Key, Florida
Sun Jun 24 2012 04:49 PM
Update - Tuesday, June 26th 6PM EDT
Debby made an official landfall on Steinhatchee this afternoon.
Debby is moving a little bit faster to the east-northeast, at roughly 6 MPH, and is now expected to exit the state to the east by Thursday morning. She is a minimal tropical cyclone, but Debby continues to fire deep to very deep convection in the northeast quadrant, and given its still slow movement, this will result in some more flooding rains as the low level center crosses the state. The persistent, heavy rains will now primarily occur over northeast Florida, as the Panhandle finally begins to dry out and recover.
Update - Tuesday, June 26th, Noon EDT
TS Debby was located about 65 miles west of Cedar Key at Noon, Tuesday, and was moving slowly to the east. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to 40mph so Debby is now a minimal Tropical Storm. Landfall is likely Wednesday morning but no increase in intensity is expected and Debby should decrease to Tropical Depression strength on Wednesday as the cyclone crosses the Florida peninsula and moves into the Atlantic Thursday morning. If it survives the crossing, Debby could regain Tropical Storm strength later on Thursday into Friday as the system moves east northeast and northeast into the Atlantic. Periods of heavy rain can still be expected in northeast Florida and southeast Georgia. Feeder bands with brief rain squalls and gusty winds continue to redevelop over the Florida peninsula.
6:30PM Update 25 June 2012
Debby continues slowly advancing NNE to NE, and as of 6PM Monday, was just barely offshore, with its primary center likely in the vicinity of 29.4N 85W.
While not ideally organized as a tropical cyclone, as Debby is still ingesting a great deal of dry air from the north and west, with some shear actually back on the increase, the storm is still creating havoc with inland flooding, minor surge, isolated damaging wind gusts and tornadoes the primary ongoing threats.
Debby's most notable weather so far could be the very heavy band of thunderstorms which has persisted throughout the day along her topside, around Apalachicola, and this feature could last for many more hours still, potentially even a few more days if Debby does not pull east soon enough, as an northeast-southwest oriented boundary with cooler northeast winds collides with the warmer, tropical southerly winds. Storm rainfall totals in this region are already running as high as 15" - 20".
It is now Monday, and assuming the latest forecast is correct, Debby may not even clear Florida's east coast until Thursday or Friday, generating regions of flooding tropical showers and thunderstorms along the way. However, it is worth stressing that confidence is still not high, despite that more model support exists for the track east across the state.
Should the forecast of a slow trip across north Florida verify, steering currents could become very weak once again around the upcoming weekend, and a few of the better models take the cyclone, or what is left of her, on another agonizingly slow trip - this time up the Gulf Stream. If that verifies, and looking at the set up, it very well might, Debby could become much stronger while along the east coast. Model discussions and forecast speculation can be found (and should be discussed) in the Forecast Lounge.
11:20 AM Update 25 June 2012
Tropical Storm Debby's official forecast track has shifted again, then time taking it across the Florida Peninsula by the end of the week.
Tropical Storm Warnings now extend from Destin to Englewood, warnings west of Destin were discontinued.
Debby is much weaker this morning, with most of the convection around the center gone, although some convection has fired closer to the center in the last few hours.
If Debby continues to weaken it may dissipate, but as of now it is forecast to cross the peninsula, bringing band of rain over the next few days.
It is currently forecast to weaken to a depression and slowly move across the peninsula and exit on Saturday, after which, if the storm is still intact, it has another chance to regain strength.
After that is speculation, but it could go northeast, out to sea, or continue to hang around offshore.
Since convection has waned, in Central/Western Florida rain will likely be much more off and on than yesterday.
6:30 AM Update 25 June 2012
Debby has lost most of its core convection overnight and remains much weaker than yesterday, but is caught between two anticyclones and will likely remain in put for a few days.
On water vapor and IR satellite, Debby is not looking very healthy, and may eventually just fall apart, but it remains over water and has enough circulation to stay alive at least a few more days pumping moisture from the south and streaming it over west/central Florida, and the Panhandle for a few days.
Tropical Storm Debby's 5PM update has come, and the official forecast track has shifted well east, now land falling somewhere in the Panhandle of Florida... around Thursday..
It may be a bit before that, but the general idea is that Debby will sit and spin for a few days in the Gulf, bringing rain and surge to the Northeastern Gulf.
Because of the shift, all the warnings in Louisiana have been cancelled, and tropical storm watches have been extended southward on Florida's west coast south to Englewood (just north of Ft. Myers).
The forecast keeps it out in the Gulf for a while, so it still could change. The entire Gulf needs to monitor it. But the pounding rain and high surge/surf along the West Coast will continue potentially for a few days. If anything were to change, it would likely be a shortening of the time it spends in the Gulf.
long term recording of the NASA color gulf sat for Debby:
or http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/imageanimator.php?130 (if older browsers)
Florida Radar Recording of Debby Here, or Here
Power outage map for Florida (Progress Energy)
Florida Emergency Management
WTSP 10 Tampa TV Live Stream
HCW Live Stream Beach Cam (West end of Gulf Shores, AL)
Panama City Beach cams
Flhurricane Web cam recording out of Madeira Beach
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Edited by cieldumort (Tue Jun 26 2012 06:09 PM)