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The 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season begins on June 1st, 2019 and ends on Nov 30th, 2019.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 101 (Michael) , Major: 101 (Michael) Florida - Any: 101 (Michael) Major: 101 (Michael)
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Weather Analyst

Reged: Mon
Posts: 959
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: Are Seasonal Forecasts Worthwhile
      Tue Nov 05 2013 01:28 PM

I thought I remember that last year there was some discussion of Colorado State dropping the publishing of the seasonal forecast due to reliability probabilities being lower that expected. I think that is proving to be the case, but school is still out. There are so many variables such as a gaseous atmosphere and a liquid sea and a complete understanding of them is still a work in progress. Probabilities that range a little higher than 50/50 which is near where this part of the science is, I think, may have some utilitarian value in planning if only to trend toward caution in the face of a threat to public safety. But on a personal level it is nothing more than an interesting participatory sport. Kind of fun.


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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Are Seasonal Forecasts Worthwhile? Owlguin Tue Nov 05 2013 01:28 PM
. * * Re: Are Seasonal Forecasts Worthwhile Ed DunhamAdministrator   Fri Nov 01 2013 01:29 AM
. * * Re: Are Seasonal Forecasts Worthwhile doug   Tue Nov 05 2013 01:28 PM

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