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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
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Archives >> 2013 Storm Forum

Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Outlook for 2013 - Final Results
      Mon Nov 25 2013 12:54 PM

Well not exactly one of out better years for forecasting seasonal totals - matter of fact, it was our poorest performance but we were certainly not alone in our demise. The average seasonal forecast by CFHC Users was 17/9/4 and the actual result was 13/2/0 for a total error of -15.
TSR 15/8/3 = -11 and CSU 18/9/4 = -16

2013 was a slightly above average season for total named storms but way below average for the number of hurricanes and major hurricanes - and this was not an El Nino year. Using our normal scoring scheme, this is how well we did (or perhaps it shows how well we didn't ):

0 to -2 Outstanding - 0 forecasts
-3 to -4 Excellent - 0 forecasts
-5 to -6 Good - 0 forecasts
-7 to -8 Fair - 1 forecast
-9 to -15+ Hmmm - all the rest (30 forecasts)

The lower level of activity compared to the past three years and the minimal number of hurricanes combined to wipe out every forecast. The best score this year was B.C.Francis with -8. Joeyfl, MikeC and I all had -9 and all of those scores would normally be considered as a busted forecast. If I only scored the number of named storms, I was lucky enough to join CarolinaGurl and Joeyfl and hit the exact total of 13. B.C.Francis and gsand were close with 14. The forecast extremes ranged from 10/7/2 (-10) to 24/19/9 (-37).

Thanks to all of you who joined in the fun of our annual forecast activity - we'll try to do a little better next year.
Cheers,
ED

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Outlook for 2013 Ed DunhamAdministrator Mon Nov 25 2013 12:54 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 Ed DunhamAdministrator   Fri May 31 2013 08:34 PM
. * * Outlook for 2013 - Final Results Ed DunhamAdministrator   Mon Nov 25 2013 12:54 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 vpbob21   Fri May 31 2013 05:58 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 Doombot!   Fri May 31 2013 05:31 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 IMTechspec   Thu May 30 2013 07:10 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 Lamar-Plant City   Thu May 30 2013 10:04 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 Bloodstar   Fri May 31 2013 01:04 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 Lamar-Plant City   Fri May 31 2013 01:42 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 DMFischer   Thu May 30 2013 05:18 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 cieldumort   Mon May 27 2013 02:27 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 cieldumort   Tue May 28 2013 01:53 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sun May 26 2013 12:40 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 JimB   Sun May 26 2013 09:28 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 Joeyfl   Sun May 26 2013 09:39 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 ftlaudbob   Mon May 27 2013 01:59 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 SchexStorm   Mon May 27 2013 07:04 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 gsand   Sun May 12 2013 09:19 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 Wingman51   Mon May 13 2013 11:14 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 weatherhead   Mon May 13 2013 09:00 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 CarolinaGurl   Tue May 21 2013 09:10 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 stormtiger   Tue May 21 2013 09:53 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 Kigeliakitten   Sat May 11 2013 04:12 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 beachcrafts   Thu May 02 2013 01:32 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 rmbjoe1954   Wed Mar 20 2013 12:37 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 Ed DunhamAdministrator   Fri Mar 08 2013 12:09 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 Ed DunhamAdministrator   Fri Apr 05 2013 11:23 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 Ed DunhamAdministrator   Fri May 03 2013 12:13 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 GlenJohnson   Sat May 04 2013 10:14 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 Hurricane29   Sat May 11 2013 12:44 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 MikeCAdministrator   Tue May 28 2013 07:52 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 Fletch   Tue May 28 2013 11:34 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 dolfinatic   Tue May 28 2013 12:12 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 Storm Hunter   Tue May 28 2013 10:30 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 eulogia   Wed May 29 2013 07:19 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 Ed DunhamAdministrator   Wed Apr 10 2013 10:34 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 rmbjoe1954   Wed Apr 10 2013 12:05 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 Ed DunhamAdministrator   Wed Apr 10 2013 10:21 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 doug   Wed May 01 2013 12:30 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 MichaelA   Wed May 01 2013 04:22 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 JoshuaK   Sat Apr 27 2013 09:04 AM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 B.C.Francis   Mon Mar 11 2013 04:35 PM
. * * Re: Outlook for 2013 Ed DunhamAdministrator   Tue Mar 12 2013 07:51 AM

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