cieldumort
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Loc: Austin, Tx
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Persistent Invest 93L Remains on the Cusp
Mon Jul 28 2014 02:25 AM
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7:30 PM EDT 31 July 2014 Update
SAL (Saharan Air Layer) has been blown and drawn into the very center of 93L's circulation today. This could easily be the kiss of death for just about most any other system, but it is these tenacious tropical lows that one should not write off so quickly, and as such, NHC still gives 70% odds for development within the next 48 hours. After that, it is not entirely clear whether or not an upper-level low to 93L's northwest, which is currently in the process of retrograding and digging southwest, may do more to increase westerly shear while it is around the islands, or perhaps help induce and increase outflow.
Ciel
5:00 AM EDT 31 July 2014 Update
Despite being nearly decapitated by modest shear and some dry air entrainment, the low designated Invest 93L has continued walking a thin line from being upgradable, to being forgettable. Not surprisingly, yesterday NHC adjusted their depression forecast to a coin flip: 50/50.
This morning 93L finds itself back in a slightly better environment to finally seal the deal, and NHC has teams at the ready tentatively scheduled to check it out later today, or tonight.
Bottom line, more factors than not today support a potential resumption of development, and given 93L's still low latitude owing to its starts and fits, interests in the islands should take note. Near tropical storm force winds are already occurring, and only a small increase in organization could warrant watches and warnings, with a direct impact now more possible.
Ciel
9:15 PM EDT 28 July 2014 Update
While the last update from NHC was merely an hour ago, giving 93L a 50% chance of development within the next 48 hours (and 70% within 5 days), the system has quickly become better organized throughout the late afternoon and evening, and now tonight it appears that a Tropical Depression could already be forming.
A very timely Scatterometer pass from about 7:42 PM EDT clearly shows that while still on the mild side, surface winds were closing off directly underneath a coalescing sphere of deep convection, a tell-tale sign of tropical cyclogenesis.
Ciel
Original Entry
After a fairly quiet couple of weeks in the Atlantic, things may be about to change.
The modest tropical wave that rolled off the coast of Africa a few days ago and that has been gradually picking up some steam has become sufficiently organized to be given an Invest tag for tracking: 93L.
As of 2AM EDT July 28, Invest 93L was located roughly 550 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands in the central Atlantic, moving west around 10-15MPH.
93L is in a favorable environment for further organization, and it looks probable that it will become a numbered tropical cyclone within the next few days, with movement expected to the west or west-northwest.
Ciel
{{StormCarib}}
{{StormLinks|Bertha|2|3|2014|2|Bertha}}
Edited by MikeC (Thu Jul 31 2014 11:20 PM)
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