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Archives 2010s >> 2014 Forecast Lounge

cieldumort
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 1825
Loc: Austin, Tx
Gulf of Mexico Invest 98L
      Tue Aug 26 2014 01:22 PM



An area of showers and thunderstorms currently stretched NW-SE across the Gulf of Mexico is associated with a "back door" cold front that pushed out over the open waters on Monday.

These showers and storms have started to organize a bit today, and there is a chance of further development, provided the area of low pressure remains over water.

Favoring chances for development, the Gulf of Mexico is currently running above its already toasty climatological norms, and so there is certainly sufficient oceanic heat energy for fuel. Additionally, regional barometric pressure is already somewhat low. Finally, shear over the disturbance itself is not at all prohibitive, with even an upper level high centered across the Gulf.

Detractors include some nearby moderate shear, abundant dry air, and proximity to land.

This is where to put our mid to long range thoughts on this system's potential for further development, intensity, and forecast track. Model output discussions are also appropriate here.

Title changed to reflect addition of Invest tag (98L)

Edited by cieldumort (Wed Aug 27 2014 12:08 PM)

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Gulf of Mexico Invest 98L cieldumort Tue Aug 26 2014 01:22 PM
. * * Re: Gulf of Mexico Invest 98L cieldumort   Thu Aug 28 2014 03:30 PM
. * * Re: Gulf of Mexico Invest 98L MichaelA   Wed Aug 27 2014 10:03 PM
. * * Re: Gulf of Mexico Invest 98L JoshuaK   Thu Aug 28 2014 06:58 AM

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