This is the forecast lounge for the area tagged in the Tropical Weather outlook as a 20% chance to develop over the next 5 days. Its currently not being tracked as an invest, so there aren't detailed model runs for it.
18z model hoedown:
GFS: Low forms in South Gulf on Monday, then moves over Central Florida on Tuesday just north of Tampa and quickly exits the state in the Northeast by Tuesday night. weak, just lots of rain. (Then followed by another System behind it Thursday/Friday)
Euro: Moves a bit slower, and is a bit stronger than the GFS, over Orlando Wednesday morning and out at the evening. No indication of a second system.
CMC: Over big bend Monday morning, out georgia by Monday evening. stronger than the GFS. Second system weaker, landfall over big bend Friday, june 10th.
NOGAPS/NAVGEM: Clips Western Cuba Monday morning, Cat 1/2 hurricane over the Keys Tuesday morning. Over Freeport Bahamas Tuesday Evening as a Cat 2.
Regardless this could be a major rain event for Florida next week, the stream of moisture coming in from the southwest looks impressive. South and Central Florida in particular.
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