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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 45 (Nate) , Major: 63 (Maria) Florida - Any: 73 (Irma) Major: 73 (Irma)
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Archives >> 2016 Forecast Lounge

cieldumort
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 1635
Loc: Austin, Tx
Watching SW GOM - NW Caribbean Crossover TD ONE-E
      Mon Jun 06 2016 03:28 PM



Under normal circumstances, we would relegate East Pacific TCs to "Other Basins," with the exception of Hawaii. However, East Pac TD ONE has formed just southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with movement to the northeast.

Last night NHC development odds were running 20% over 5-Days, but it has organized rapidly throughout the day today, and in doing so, has become a Depression much closer to the Gulf of Mexico, while still caught up in a flow regime directing systems from southwest to northeast, extending from a fetch in the far eastern Pacific, across the Western Atlantic.

Should TD ONE-E be named prior to making landfall along extreme southwest Mexico, it's name will be Agatha. If it were to then cross over into the Atlantic basin sufficiently intact, it would retain that name. Conversely, if it were not to be named while in the Pacific, or would lose its identity while over land, but then regenerate anew while in the Gulf of Mexico and become a storm, it would receive a name from the Atlantic basin's list of names.

NHC will be starting advisories on ONE-E shortly.


Title edited to reflect updated steering currents that suggest a more ENE track is also possible.

Edited by cieldumort (Mon Jun 06 2016 04:55 PM)

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Watching SW GOM - NW Caribbean Crossover TD ONE-E cieldumort Mon Jun 06 2016 03:28 PM
. * * Re: Watching SW GOM - NW Caribbean Crossover TD ONE-E DaViking   Mon Jun 06 2016 10:14 PM
. * * Re: Watching SW GOM - NW Caribbean Crossover TD ONE-E cieldumort   Mon Jun 06 2016 10:47 PM
. * * Re: Watching SW GOM - NW Caribbean Crossover TD ONE-E Ed DunhamAdministrator   Mon Jun 06 2016 11:50 PM
. * * Re: Watching SW GOM - NW Caribbean Crossover TD ONE-E M.A.   Tue Jun 07 2016 09:13 AM
. * * Re: Watching SW GOM - NW Caribbean Crossover TD ONE-E cieldumort   Wed Jun 08 2016 12:31 AM
. * * Re: Watching SW GOM - NW Caribbean Crossover TD ONE-E cjzydeco   Mon Jun 06 2016 07:27 PM
. * * Re: Watching SW GOM - NW Caribbean Crossover TD ONE-E craigm   Mon Jun 06 2016 09:02 PM

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