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Tracking a Caribbean Wave and keeping an eye on the potential for new Caribbean Gyre/Trough development next week
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General Discussion >> 2017 Storm Forum

cieldumortModerator
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 1632
Loc: Austin, Tx
Area of Concern - TS CINDY
      Sat Jun 17 2017 02:29 PM

At 17/18Z, Invest 93L was centered in the Gulf of Honduras, near 17.5N 86.5W, and is drifting generally northwest.

93L is slowly organizing, with sustained winds of 25 knots and a central pressure of 1008MB. SSTs in the northwestern Caribbean are a very supportive 28C. However, both the surface temps and depth of the 26.5C isotherm drop off considerably in much of the Gulf of Mexico. Additionally, in the near-term, windshear is still challenging, at or above 20 knots.

Models in the aggregate slowly take 93L into the Gulf and develop it into a mid-grade tropical storm while under the influence of more favorable shear, but there is still a lot of speculation as to its eventual intensity and destination. See the CINDY Lounge for more on that.

As of 17/18Z, NHC has given 93L an 80% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone within 5 days.


Title changed to reflect NHC advisory issuance on PTC THREE .. and now CINDY

- Ciel




Edited by cieldumort (Tue Jun 20 2017 01:50 PM)

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* Area of Concern - TS CINDY cieldumortModerator Sat Jun 17 2017 02:29 PM
. * * Re: Area of Concern - TS CINDY cieldumortModerator   Tue Jun 20 2017 02:03 PM

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