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Tracking a Caribbean Wave and keeping an eye on the potential for new Caribbean Gyre/Trough development next week
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General Discussion >> 2017 Storm Forum

cieldumortModerator
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 1632
Loc: Austin, Tx
Area of Concern - BRET
      Sun Jun 18 2017 02:46 PM

At 18/18Z, Invest 92L was located about 800 miles east-southeast of the southern Windward Islands, at 7.3N 49.4W, and is tracking west-northwest at near 20 mph. Central pressure is estimated at 1008mb, and maximum sustained winds are about 30 knots.

92L appears to be very close to closing off at the surface this afternoon, and combined with an increase in deep convection, a tropical cyclone could be forming. Over the past day, the wave has been increasing latitude, such that detrimental interaction with northern South America appears less likely. SSTs along its path are sufficiently warm, and windshear may not become challenging for few more days.

As of 18/18Z, NHC has increased 92L to a 60% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone within 48 hours, and this could be conservative. Interests along northern South America and in the Lesser Antilles may want to begin paying more attention.

Model discussions and personal best guesses on 92L's future can be found in the BRET Lounge

PTC TWO has become Tropical Storm Bret and the title has been updated.

Edited by cieldumort (Mon Jun 19 2017 05:37 PM)

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Area of Concern - BRET cieldumortModerator Sun Jun 18 2017 02:46 PM
. * * Re: Area of Concern - BRET cieldumortModerator   Mon Jun 19 2017 05:57 PM
. * * Re: Area of Interest - UPGRADED to "Potential Tropical Cyclone Two" 5pm Sunday Kraig   Sun Jun 18 2017 05:41 PM
. * * Re: Area of Interest - UPGRADED to "Potential Tropical Cyclone Two" 5pm Sunday SouthGAwx   Mon Jun 19 2017 02:45 PM

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