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Chill falls over the Atlantic as the official season heads towards close
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 211 (Idalia) , Major: 211 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 211 (Idalia) Major: 211 (Idalia)
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#1012092 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:51 AM 13.Aug.2020)
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020
500 AM AST Thu Aug 13 2020

Proxy-visible GOES-16 satellite imagery and data from an earlier
scatterometer pass indicated that the low-level center of the
depression is displaced to the south of the main area of deep
convection. Recently, however, some new convection is forming
closer to the estimated center which suggests some re-organization
of the system may be taking place. Dvorak T-numbers from TAFB and
SAB are only 1.0, but the current intensity estimates from these
agencies still support 30 kt. Since the shear is not expected to
increase significantly for the next day or so, strengthening is
still forecast in the short term. Beginning around 2-3 days,
southwesterly shear associated with a large upper-level trough over
the western Atlantic should cause the cyclone to weaken. The
official intensity forecast remains close to the model consensus.

The latest center fixes show that the cyclone is moving
west-northwestward, or around 285/13 kt. There has been little
change to the track forecast or reasoning from the previous
advisory. The system should continue to move west-northwestward on
the south side of the subtropical ridge into the weekend. By day 3
a turn toward the northwest is likely in response to weakness in
the ridge followed by a turn toward the north-northwest as
the cyclone moves through this weakness late in the period. The
official track forecast is close to the latest NOAA corrected model
consensus, or HCCA, prediction and not much different from the
previous official forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0900Z 12.9N 47.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 13/1800Z 13.8N 49.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 14/0600Z 14.9N 52.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 14/1800Z 16.2N 55.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 15/0600Z 17.6N 57.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 15/1800Z 18.8N 60.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 16/0600Z 20.3N 62.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 17/0600Z 23.0N 66.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 18/0600Z 26.0N 68.5W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch