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| #1012236 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:48 AM 14.Aug.2020) TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Josephine Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020 1100 AM AST Fri Aug 14 2020 Morning visible satellite imagery indicates that the center of Josephine is located to the south or southwest of the strongest area of convection, likely due to the onset of southwesterly vertical wind shear. A just-received scatterometer pass supports an initial intensity of 35 kt, but also suggests the possibility that the circulation is longer closed. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Josephine this afternoon to provide more information on the intensity and whether a closed circulation still exists. The initial motion continues west-northwestward or 295/14 kt. Josephine should continue this general motion as it approaches a weakness in the subtropical ridge in 48-60 h. Then, the cyclone should turn northward and move through the weakness in 72-96 h. Late in the forecast period, Josephine or its remnants are expected to turn north-northeastward along the southern edge of the higher-latitude westerlies. The track guidance has not changed significantly since the previous advisory, and the new NHC forecast track is very similar to the previous forecast. Southwesterly to westerly shear should markedly increase after 12-18 h due mainly to upper-level troughing over the southwestern Atlantic. The new intensity forecast leaves open the possibility of a little strengthening during the next 12 h, followed by weakening due to the shear. The intensity forecast follows the previous forecast showing the system decaying to a remnant low by 120 h. However, an alternative scenario, supported by several of the global models, is that the cyclone decays to a tropical wave well before that time. Josephine should pass far enough to the northeast of the Leeward Islands over the weekend to prevent major impacts. However, interests in the area should continue to monitor its progress until the storm has passed north of that area. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 16.1N 54.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 17.1N 56.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 18.4N 59.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 16/0000Z 19.7N 61.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 16/1200Z 20.9N 64.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 17/0000Z 22.5N 66.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 17/1200Z 24.0N 67.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 18/1200Z 27.0N 67.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 19/1200Z 30.6N 65.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven |
