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| #1018442 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:00 PM 22.Sep.2020) TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 43 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 900 PM GMT Tue Sep 22 2020 Although Paulette lacks the typical definition for deep convection, there remains some convection with cloud tops to -20 deg C encircling an eye-like feature noted in the lower cloud layer. Given the low tropopause level across that portion of the Atlantic basin causing the relatively low cloud tops, Paulette is being maintained as a tropical cyclone for at least this cycle. Vertical wind shear near 30 kt along with sea-surface temperatures of 23-22 deg C are expected to result in a gradual weakening and spin down of Paulette`s circulation throughout the forecast period. As a result, the small cyclone should become a remnant low on Wednesday and dissipate by Friday or Saturday when the shallow system will be moving westward into westerly mid-level shear. Paulette is moving eastward or 080/10 kt. This general motion is forecast to continue through Wednesday as Paulette remains embedded within deep-layer westerly flow on the east side of mid- to upper-level trough. As Paulette weakens and becomes more vertically shallow, the post-tropical cyclone is expected to slow down in the 36-48 time period and turn southward. Thereafter, Paulette should be steered westward by low-level easterly flow on the south side of the Bermuda-Azores High. The new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory track, and essentially lies down the middle of the NHC track guidance models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 34.8N 21.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 35.0N 19.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 23/1800Z 35.4N 17.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 24/0600Z 35.3N 16.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 24/1800Z 34.7N 16.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 25/0600Z 33.6N 19.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 25/1800Z 32.8N 22.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart |
