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Chill falls over the Atlantic as the official season heads towards close
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| #1022180 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:09 AM 22.Oct.2020) TCDAT2 Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 1100 AM AST Thu Oct 22 2020 Earlier aircraft data indicate that Epsilon has lost a lot of strength since yesterday. The maximum flight-level winds were only 79 kt, considerably less than satellite alone would indicate. However, satellite images show that the eye has recently become better defined, and the weakening trend has probably stopped. The initial wind speed is set to 80 kt, a bit higher than recent aircraft data with the satellite trend reversal and because the pressure was still about 965 mb on the last pass. Epsilon`s wobbling have continued overnight, but a longer-term 12-hour motion suggests that the hurricane is still moving to the northwest (325/6 kt). The cyclone should turn north-northwest soon and northward by tomorrow while it moves through a break in the central Atlantic ridge. All the guidance is showing the hurricane accelerating northeastward starting this weekend into early next week as it becomes entrained in the fast mid-latitude flow. While the new forecast is a little west of the previous NHC track for the first day or two, it is still east of the model consensus, with only cosmetic speed changes at long range. The forecast intensity could oscillate up and down during the next couple of days while Epsilon moves over marginally warm waters, and potentially undergoes an eyewall replacement and/or a conducive trough interaction. The intensity forecast through 48 hours is a compromise of these opposing factors, showing little change. At longer range, while the SSTs cool, a mid-latitude trough is likely to keep Epsilon`s strength mostly intact as the hurricane eventually contributes to a rather significant non-tropical cyclone over the far North Atlantic on day 4. The forecast for early next week is a little higher than the last one based primarily on the global model fields. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected intermittently on Bermuda through this evening, when Epsilon is forecast to make its closest approach east of the island. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Bermuda. 2. Dangerous and potentially life-threatening surf and rip currents are expected along the coasts of Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, the Leeward Islands, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 30.9N 61.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 31.9N 61.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 33.4N 61.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 24/0000Z 35.1N 61.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 24/1200Z 36.9N 60.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 25/0000Z 39.6N 57.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 25/1200Z 43.0N 50.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 26/1200Z 52.5N 30.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake/Papin |
