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Chill falls over the Atlantic as the official season heads towards close
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| #1022407 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:47 AM 24.Oct.2020) TCDAT2 Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 500 AM AST Sat Oct 24 2020 Epsilon`s convective pattern has continued to devolve into more of a large comma-shaped pattern rather than the classical circular structure of a mature tropical cyclone. There is a ragged remnant eye, however, which has provided a good continuity feature to track. The initial intensity has been lowered to 65 kt based on a Dvorak satellite current intensity (CI) estimate of T4.0/65 kt from TAFB. The initial motion estimate is north-northeastward, or 015/10 kt. Epsilon is now located north of the mid-oceanic subtropical ridge axis, so acceleration into the faster mid-latitude westerlies is expected to begin by this evening, if not sooner, and continue through the weekend. The latest NHC model guidance is in excellent agreement on this developing track scenario. The new NHC official track forecast is almost identical to the previous advisory track, and lies down the middle of the tightly packed simple- and corrected-consensus track model envelope. Epsilon will be moving off of a relatively warm Gulfstream eddy (26.5 deg C sea-surface temperature/SST) in the next 6 h or so, which should result in continued slow weakening through the weekend. By 36 h, SSTs are expected to drop sharply to less than 20 deg C, causing the complete erosion of any remaining inner-core convection and resultant transition to a large and powerful extratropical low. The post-tropical cyclone will continue to produce a large area of gale- and storm-force winds right up until the time that it merges with a larger extratropical low over the far northern Atlantic by late Monday or Tuesday. That low pressure system will likely produce hazardous conditions over portions of far North Atlantic through the middle of next week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0900Z 36.9N 62.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 24/1800Z 38.8N 59.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 25/0600Z 41.5N 55.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 25/1800Z 45.0N 47.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 26/0600Z 49.1N 36.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 26/1800Z 53.3N 25.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 27/0600Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW $$ Forecaster Stewart |
