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| #1022759 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:57 PM 26.Oct.2020) TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Zeta Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020 1000 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2020 ...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS LASHING YUCATAN... ...ZETA SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL IN A COUPLE OF HOURS WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.2N 87.1W ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM E OF TULUM MEXICO ABOUT 625 MI...1010 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Punta Allen to Progreso Mexico * Cozumel A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Intracoastal City Louisiana to Navarre Florida * Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Vermilion Bay, Pensacola Bay, and Mobile Bay A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Morgan City Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Mississippi/Alabama border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida * West of Morgan City to Intracoastal City Louisiana A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 6 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Zeta was located near latitude 20.2 North, longitude 87.1 West. Zeta is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is forecast during the next day or so. Zeta should turn toward the north Tuesday night, and a faster northward to north-northeastward motion is anticipated on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Zeta will move over the northern Yucatan Peninsula during the next couple of hours, move over the southern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, and approach the northern Gulf Coast in the watch area on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible before Zeta makes landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula. Weakening is forecast while Zeta moves over the Yucatan Peninsula late tonight and early Tuesday. Zeta is forecast to re-strengthen when it moves over the southern Gulf of Mexico later on Tuesday and be at or near hurricane strength when it approaches the northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). A Weatherflow station just south of Playa del Carmen reported sustained winds of 67 mph (108 km/h) with a gust to 87 mph (140 km/h). Another Weatherflow station in Cancun recently reported sustained winds of 60 mph (97 km/h) with a gust to 72 mph (116 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.00 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Zeta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in the Hurricane Warning area near and to the north of where the center makes landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula. The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Port Fourchon LA to Dauphin Island AL including Lake Borgne...4-6 ft Intracoastal City LA to Port Fourchon LA including Vermilion Bay...2-4 ft Dauphin Island AL to Navarre FL including Mobile Bay and Pensacola Bay...2-4 ft Lake Pontchartrain...2-4 ft Navarre FL to Yankeetown FL including Choctawhatchee Bay and Saint Andrew Bay...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with local amounts of 12 inches are possible through Tuesday along and east-northeast of Zetas track across the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico and the Cayman Islands. An additional 1 to 3 inches of rain will be possible across western Cuba through Tuesday. An initial area of heavy rains will begin to impact the central Gulf Coast Tuesday night, spreading north into the Tennessee Valley on Wednesday. The core of the heavy rains associated with Zeta will push northeast from eastern Louisiana, across southern Mississippi, Alabama, northern Georgia through Wednesday night, and through the southern Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic on Thursday. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts of 6 inches are expected across these areas, resulting in flash, urban, small stream, and minor river flooding. WIND: Hurricane conditions are already occurring within the Hurricane Warning area and should continue for the next several hours. Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area on the northern Gulf Coast late Wednesday, and tropical storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area on the northern Gulf Coast late Wednesday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Blake |
