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#1023838 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:47 PM 03.Nov.2020)
TCDAT4

Hurricane Eta Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
1000 PM EST Tue Nov 03 2020

Satellite imagery and surface observation data indicate that
Hurricane Eta has moved farther inland over northeastern Nicaragua
this evening. Eta has maintained a well-defined CDO feature in
infrared satellite data, although passive microwave imagery is no
longer depicting an eye feature. A sustained wind of 93 kt (107 mph)
with a gust to 117 kt (135 mph) was reported at the Puerto Cabezas,
Nicaragua, airport around 03/2139 UTC while the eye of Eta was just
inland. The initial intensity of 90 kt is based on a standard decay
rate for inland tropical cyclones.

The initial motion estimate is 270/05 kt. The track forecast
reasoning is fairly straightforward for the next 72 h. A narrow
ridge to the north and northeast of the cyclone will cause Eta to
gradually turn toward the west-northwest over the next 12 h, and
maintain that motion through 48 h. In the 48-72 h period, Eta or its
remnants are expected to turn northward and then northeastward, and
emerge over the northwestern Caribbean Sea offshore the Yucatan
Peninsula by 72 h. Thereafter, the forecast becomes more complex due
to expected mid-latitude interaction with an upper-level trough/low
currently over the southwestern U.S. that will be digging
southeastward and amplifying over the Gulf of Mexico and as far
south as the Yucatan by 96 h. The trough is expected to lift out Eta
or its remnants northeastward across Cuba, then slow down and turn
northward toward the southern Florida peninsula by 120 h when the
cyclone will be interacting with an upper-level low over the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Due to this complex mid-latitude
low/trough interaction, the track forecast at days 4 and 5 contains
some uncertainty. The new NHC track forecast is just a little to the
left of the previous advisory track through 72 hours, but not as far
west as the simple- and corrected-consensus models, and is very
similar to the previous advisory track at 96 and 120 hours.

Similar to the track forecast, the intensity forecast is also
straightforward through 72 h, which calls for Eta to rapidly weaken
for the next 48 h so using a standard decay rate for inland tropical
cyclones. By 72 h and beyond, the intensity forecast becomes a
little more complicated due to the aforementioned mid-latitude
trough interaction. The global models are still in fairly good
agreement with the development of an anticyclonically curved
upper-level jetstream across the northwestern Caribbean Sea, Cuba,
and the Bahamas by 96 h. There are some subtropical jet dynamics
already occurring across the northwestern Caribbean, which has
helped to generate widespread convection across the region today. As
the jetstream amplifies ahead of the vigorous upper-level trough,
significant upper-level divergence is expected to develop, which
will cause surface pressures to fall across the northwestern
Caribbean Sea. Those strong pressure falls will likely aid in the
redevelopment of Eta or generate a new tropical cyclone. Regardless
of the exact formation, the global and regional models are all in
good agreement on a tropical or subtropical cyclone developing and
moving across Cuba and toward Florida on days 4 and 5. The new
official intensity forecast is very similar to the previous
intensity forecast through 72 hours, and then is slightly higher
thereafter, but not as high as some of the intensity guidance like
the HCCA and ICON consensus models.

Key Messages:

1. Significant wind damage is expected along the coast of
northeastern Nicaragua and also inland overnight.

2. A dangerous and life-threatening storm surge, along with
destructive waves, are expected along portions of the northeastern
coast of Nicaragua overnight. Water levels could reach as high as
5 to 10 feet above normal tide levels in some parts of the hurricane
warning area.

3. Through Friday evening, heavy rainfall from Eta will lead to
catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding
across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas
of higher terrain. Flash and river flooding is also possible across
Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El Salvador, southern Haiti, and the
Cayman Islands.

4. Eta is forecast to regain tropical storm strength as it moves
across portions of Cuba and approaches southern Florida this
weekend. While it is too soon to determine the exact timing,
magnitude, and location of possible impacts from wind and rainfall,
interests in Cuba, southern Florida and the Florida Keys should
monitor the progress of Eta through the week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0300Z 13.8N 84.0W 90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND
12H 04/1200Z 13.9N 84.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
24H 05/0000Z 14.4N 86.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 05/1200Z 15.3N 88.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 06/0000Z 16.0N 89.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 06/1200Z 16.9N 88.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 07/0000Z 17.9N 86.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 08/0000Z 21.1N 82.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 09/0000Z 24.3N 80.5W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart