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| #1024723 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:56 PM 10.Nov.2020) TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Eta Advisory Number 43 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 1000 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2020 ...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS THAT ETA IS A LITTLE STRONGER... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND STORM SURGE WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.8N 84.5W ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM WSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM SSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the Florida west coast from Bonita Beach to the Suwannee River. A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the Florida west coast from Bonita Beach to the Steinhatchee River, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Florida Gulf coast from north of the Suwannee River to the Aucilla River. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dry Tortugas * Bonita Beach to Suwannee River Florida A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Bonita Beach to Steinhatchee River Florida, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth * North of the Suwannee River to Aucilla River Florida A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the Gulf Coast of Florida should monitor the progress of Eta. Additional warnings may be required along portions of the Florida Gulf coast early Wednesday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM EST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was located near latitude 23.8 North, longitude 84.5 West. Eta is moving toward the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). A motion toward the north-northeast is forecast through Thursday. On the forecast track the center of Eta will move closer to but offshore of the southwest coast of Florida on Wednesday, approach the west-central coast of Florida Wednesday night, and move inland over the northern portion of the Florida peninsula on Thursday. Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast through Wednesday, and Eta could be near hurricane strength by Wednesday morning. Gradual weakening is expected to begin Wednesday night or early Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on reconnaissance aircraft data is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Steinhatchee River to Bonita Beach, FL including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft Bonita Beach, FL to Flamingo, FL...1-2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore flow, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall through tonight: Western Cuba: an additional 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm), with isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 25 inches (765 mm). South Florida: Isolated additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches, with isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 15 to 20 inches. Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Friday: West Florida into the eastern Florida Panhandle and portions of North Florida: 1 to 3 inches, with isolated totals of 5 inches. Flash and river flooding will be possible in western Cuba through tonight, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Additional flash and urban flooding will be possible in South Florida tonight, especially across previously inundated areas, and eventually across portions of west Florida, the eastern Florida Panhandle, and north Florida Wednesday through Friday. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Dry Tortugas overnight and early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area along the Florida west coast by late Wednesday. Tropical Storm conditions are possible in the watch area along the Florida Big Bend region by Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area in Cuba tonight. SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect the north coast of Cuba, southern and western Florida, and the Florida Keys during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM EST. Next complete advisory at 400 AM EST. $$ Forecaster Brown |
