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| #1051441 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:45 AM 04.Jul.2021) TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 500 AM EDT Sun Jul 04 2021 ...ELSA VERY NEAR EASTERN CUBA AND JAMAICA... ...HEAVY RAINS AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXPECTED THERE TODAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.1N 75.5W ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM E OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM SE OF CABO CRUZ CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Southern portion of Haiti from Port Au Prince to the southern border with the Dominican Republic * The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas, Santiago de Cuba, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, and Cienfuegos * Jamaica A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas, and Santiago de Cuba A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cayman Brac and Little Cayman * The Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, and Havana * The Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and the Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of Elsa. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required this morning. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located near latitude 18.1 North, longitude 75.5 West. Elsa is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). An additional decrease in forward speed is expected later today, followed by a turn toward the northwest tonight or Monday. On the forecast track, Elsa will move away from the southern portion of Haiti during the next couple of hours, and move near Jamaica and portions of eastern Cuba later this morning. By Monday, Elsa is expected to move across central and western Cuba and head toward the Florida Straits. Elsa is then forecast to move near or over portions of the west coast of Florida on Tuesday and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible today as Elsa approaches the south-central coast of Cuba. However, gradual weakening is forecast to occur tonight and Monday when Elsa moves across Cuba. After Elsa emerges over the Florida Straits and southeastern Gulf of Mexico some slight restrengthening is possible. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue in southern portions of Haiti for a few more hours, and these conditions are expected to spread across Jamaica later this morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are possible in portions of eastern and central Cuba later today and tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch areas in the Cayman Islands by tonight, in western Cuba by early Monday, and the Florida Keys by late Monday. STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal tide levels by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore flow within the hurricane watch and warning areas... Southern coast of Cuba...3 to 5 feet Southern coast of Hispaniola...2 to 4 feet The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Craig Key, FL to Dry Tortugas...1 to 2 feet Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Across portions of southern Haiti and Jamaica, rainfall of 4 to 8 inches with isolated total amounts of 15 inches remains possible today. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding and mudslides, some of which could be significant. Across portions of Cuba today into Monday, rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected. This will result in significant flash flooding and mudslides. Across the Cayman Islands today into Monday, rainfall of 3 to 5 inches is expected. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding. Rainfall from Elsa will impact portions of the Florida Keys and Florida Peninsula Monday through Wednesday. Amounts of 2 to 4 inches with localized maximum amounts up to 6 inches will be possible, which may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Elsa will spread westward along the coast of Jamaica and the southern coast of Cuba during the next day or two. Swells will increase near the Florida Keys and south Florida early next week. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Reinhart |
