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| #1052004 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:00 AM 07.Jul.2021) TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 1500 UTC WED JUL 07 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... ALL WARNINGS SOUTH OF ARIPEKA...FLORIDA...HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE HURRICANE WARNING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. THE STORM SURGE WATCH FOR THE FLORIDA GULF COAST HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TO SANDY HOOK...NEW JERSEY...INCLUDING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NORTH BEACH...THE TIDAL POTOMAC SOUTH OF COBB ISLAND...AND DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM ARIPEKA TO THE AUCILLA RIVER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM ARIPEKA TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER * MOUTH OF ST. MARYS RIVER...GEORGIA TO LITTLE RIVER INLET...SOUTH CAROLINA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET...SOUTH CAROLINA TO SANDY HOOK...NEW JERSEY * PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS * CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NORTH BEACH AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC SOUTH OF COBB ISLAND * DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK... PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ELSA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 83.6W AT 07/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 80SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 83.6W AT 07/1500Z AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.2N 83.6W FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 31.7N 82.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 95SE 20SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 34.3N 80.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 37.3N 77.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 40.6N 73.3W...NEAR COAST MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 140SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 44.5N 68.0W...NEAR COAST MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 140SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 49.0N 60.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 120SE 60SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 58.0N 47.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.9N 83.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 07/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
