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| #1052139 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:12 PM 07.Jul.2021) TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 1100 PM EDT Wed Jul 07 2021 ...NEW TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR NORTH CAROLINA AND THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.1N 82.3W ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM NW OF BRUNSWICK GEORGIA ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM WSW OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from Little River Inlet South Carolina to Great Egg Inlet New Jersey, including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds, Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach and the tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island and Delaware Bay south of Slaughter Beach. The Tropical Storm Warning south of Altamaha Sound Georgia has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Little River Inlet, South Carolina to Great Egg Inlet, New Jersey. * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds * Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach and the tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island * Delaware Bay south of Slaughter Beach A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Great Egg Inlet, New Jersey to Sandy Hook, New Jersey * Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to the eastern tip along the south shore and from Port Jefferson Harbor eastward on the north shore * New Haven, Connecticut to Sagamore Beach, Massachusetts including Cape Cod, Block Island, Martha`s Vineyard, and Nantucket. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests in the Canadian Maritimes should monitor the progress of Elsa. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located near latitude 32.1 North, longitude 82.3 West. Elsa is moving toward the north-northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn toward northeast is expected overnight, followed by a faster northeastward motion by late Thursday. On the forecast track, Elsa will move over Georgia tonight, over South Carolina early on Thursday, over North Carolina later on Thursday, pass near the eastern mid-Atlantic states late Thursday and move near or over the northeastern United States on Friday. Doppler radar and surface data indicate that the maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening is expected through tomorrow as Elsa moves over land, and some re-strengthening is possible on Friday while the system moves close to the northeastern United States. Elsa is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone late Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km), mostly southeast of the center near the coast. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches) based on nearby surface observations. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area along the Georgia coast tonight, along the South Carolina coast tonight and early Thursday, along the North Carolina coast on Thursday and along the mid-Atlantic coast by Thursday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the mid-Atlantic and northeastern states by Friday. RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts and impacts the rest of this week: Across portions of southeastern Georgia and the Lowcountry of South Carolina, storm totals of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum amounts up to 8 inches are likely tonight through Thursday, which may result in considerable flash and urban flooding. Across central and eastern North Carolina into southeastern Virginia...1 to 3 inches with isolated totals up to 5 inches from late tonight through Thursday night are possible, which could lead to limited flash and urban flooding. From the Mid-Atlantic into New England, 1 to 3 inches with isolated totals up to 5 inches are possible Thursday into Friday. This could lead to limited flash and urban flooding. TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible overnight from southeastern Georgia into the coastal plain of South Carolina. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Blake |
