F
Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


Chill falls over the Atlantic as the official season heads towards close
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 211 (Idalia) , Major: 211 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 211 (Idalia) Major: 211 (Idalia)
None
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
ADS
Login to remove ads

 
Show Selection:
Show plain - Location:
#1062289 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:45 PM 18.Sep.2021)
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Sixteen Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162021
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 18 2021

Satellite images and surface observations indicate that the area of
low pressure that NHC has been monitoring to the east of the
northern Leeward Islands now has a well-defined center and
sufficiently organized deep convection to be classified a tropical
depression. The depression has a small area of deep convection near
its center and curved bands on its north and east sides. The
initial intensity is estimated to be 30 kt, but this is a little
below the latest Dvorak classifications and could be conservative.

The depression is moving west-northwestward at 12 kt. The cyclone
should continue west-northwestward at about the same pace during the
next few days as it moves in the flow on the southwest side of a
mid-level ridge. After that time, the ridge is expected to break
down and the steering currents are forecast to become weak. Not
surprisingly, the spread in the models increases around that time,
but most of the solutions show a slow turn toward the north toward
broad troughing associated with Post-Tropical Cyclone Odette. The
GFS is on the southern side of the guidance envelope and the ECMWF
on the northern side. The NHC track forecast lies between those
models near the consensus aids.

Some strengthening seems possible during the next 12 to 24 hours and
the system is expected to become a tropical storm during that time
frame. However, an increase in southerly and then southwesterly
vertical wind shear should cause the system to level off in strength
from 24 hours through the end of the forecast period. The models
are in fairly good agreement on this overall scenario, and the NHC
intensity forecast is in line with the majority of the guidance.

Based on the track, intensity, and wind radii forecast, no tropical
storm watches or warnings are required for the northern Leeward
Islands, Virgin Islands or Puerto Rico. However, interests there
should monitor the progress of the system as locally heavy rain is
possible on Monday and Tuesday when it is expected to pass to the
north of the area.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0300Z 16.4N 53.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 19/1200Z 17.3N 54.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 20/0000Z 18.5N 57.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 20/1200Z 19.4N 59.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 21/0000Z 20.3N 61.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 21/1200Z 21.3N 64.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 22/0000Z 22.3N 65.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 23/0000Z 24.4N 66.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 24/0000Z 26.3N 66.2W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi