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| #1110878 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:42 PM 06.Oct.2022) TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Thirteen Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022 1100 PM AST Thu Oct 06 2022 Earlier satellite imagery and radar data from Curacao indicated that the disturbance was developing a better-defined center between the ABC Islands and the coast of Venezuela. Since that time, a large convective burst has formed near and just south of the center, and there has been an increase in banding in the Curacao radar data. Based on these developments, the disturbance now has sufficient circulation and organized convection to be designated a tropical depression. Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft surveying the system showed 25-30 kt winds north of the center, so the initial intensity is set at 30 kt. The track forecast remains straightforward. The depression is moving westward or 280/13 kt due to a strong low- to mid-level ridge stretching across the western Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico. This feature should maintain the system on a general westward heading for the next 72 h across the southwestern Caribbean Sea, with some slowing of the forward motion expected by 60-72 h as the cyclone moves over Nicaragua and nears the western end of the ridge. A subsequent turn toward the west-northwest across Central America is forecast by 96 h. The new track forecast is basically an update of the previous forecast and lies very close to the tightly clustered consensus models. While the system has developed a better-defined circulation, the strongest winds are currently well to the north of the center. Given this and an environment of light northerly shear, the intensity forecast shows gradual strengthening for the next 12 h, with the cyclone becoming a tropical storm as it passes near the Guajira Peninsula of Colombia. After that, a faster rate of development is expected as the cyclone`s structure improves and the shear gradually decreases. The new intensity forecast calls for the system to become a hurricane by 48 h and to reach a peak intensity of 75 kt just before landfall in Nicaragua. This could be conservative, as the rapid intensification indices of the SHIPS model show a significant chance of rapid intensification after 48 h. As mentioned in the last advisory, after landfall the system is unlikely to survive the forecasted trek across the terrain of Central America, and dissipation is therefore shown by 120 h. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of the Guajira Peninsula of Colombia later tonight and Friday morning, where a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued. Gusts to tropical storm force are possible across portions of northern Venezuela, Aruba, Curacao, and Bonaire through early Friday. 2. The system is expected to strengthen when it moves over the southwestern Caribbean Sea, and a Hurricane Watch is in effect for San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Islands. Interests in Nicaragua and Honduras should also monitor the system`s progress, and additional watches or warnings are likely to be required for portions of these areas on Friday. 3. Heavy rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding over portions of the Guajira Peninsula, northern Venezuela, and the island chain of Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao during the next day or two. The potential for flash flooding and mudslides is expected to spread to portions of Central America this weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 11.9N 69.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 12.4N 72.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 08/0000Z 13.0N 75.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 08/1200Z 13.2N 78.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 09/0000Z 13.2N 80.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 09/1200Z 13.3N 83.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 10/0000Z 13.9N 85.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 96H 11/0000Z 15.5N 90.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 120H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven |
