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| #208537 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:51 AM 19.Aug.2008) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008 1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008 DOPPLER RADAR DATA AND SATELLITE IMAGES REVEAL THAT FAY HAS KEPT A WELL DEFINED PATTERN...AND IN FACT...RADAR SHOWS A RING OF CONVECTION WHICH RESEMBLES AN EYE FEATURE. DOPPLER VELOCITIES SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS AND BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THE MINIMUM PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 986 MB. FAY IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER LAND FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. THEREAFTER...IT SHOULD REGAIN SOME STRENGTH DURING THE 24 TO 48 HOUR PERIOD WHEN FAY IS FORECAST TO BE OVER WATER JUST OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. IF FAY MAINTAINS ITS CURRENT STRUCTURE ON RADAR...THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION COULD BE HIGHER THAN INDICATED. AT THIS TIME...THE FORECAST INTENSITY FOLLOWS CONTINUITY AND THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL. THE GFDL IS VERY AGGRESSIVE AND MAKES FAY A STRONGER CYCLONE OVER THE WATER JUST EAST OF NORTH FLORIDA. DO NOT RULE OUT THIS POSSIBILITY YET. FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 015 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS WHILE EMBEDDED WITHIN A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. HOWEVER...THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT AND BE REPLACED BY A DEVELOPING RIDGE. THIS PATTERN SHOULD FIRST WEAKEN THE STEERING CURRENTS..CAUSING FAY TO SLOW DOWN AND THEN...AS THE RIDGE BECOMES STRONGER...THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARD THE NORTH FLORIDA OR THE GEORGIA COAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH MODEL GUIDANCE AND VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. GUIDANCE UNANIMOUSLY TURNS THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE COAST OF NORTH FLORIDA OR GEORGIA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/1500Z 26.7N 81.3W 50 KT...INLAND 12HR VT 20/0000Z 27.9N 80.9W 45 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 20/1200Z 28.9N 80.6W 40 KT...OVER WATER 36HR VT 21/0000Z 29.5N 80.5W 45 KT...OVER WATER 48HR VT 21/1200Z 30.0N 80.9W 45 KT...OVER WATER 72HR VT 22/1200Z 30.6N 82.5W 30 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 23/1200Z 31.0N 84.0W 25 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 24/1200Z 31.5N 86.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
