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| #208738 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:50 PM 19.Aug.2008) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008 1100 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008 AFTER FAY'S UNEXPECTED STRENGTHENING EPISODE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA EARLIER TODAY...THE STORM IS NOW BEHAVING IN A MORE NORMAL FASHION. THE SATELLITE AND RADAR PRESENTATION HAS DEGRADED...WITH THE EYE NO LONGER EVIDENT...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO AROUND 45 KT. FAY WILL PROBABLY WEAKEN A LITTLE MORE WHILE ITS CENTER IS OVER LAND. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN AS DEPICTED BY ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE. THEREFORE FAY IS LIKELY TO COMMENCE RESTRENGTHENING WHEN IT MOVES BACK OVER WATER ON WEDNESDAY. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY PREDICTION IS SIMILAR TO THE LATEST SHIPS FORECAST. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT BOTH THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS SHOW MORE STRENGTHENING THAN INDICATED BY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. OF COURSE...THE FUTURE INTENSITY OF FAY IS ALSO STRONGLY DEPENDENT ON HOW LONG THE CENTER STAYS OVER WATER. RADAR FIXES SHOWED THAT FAY NEARLY STALLED A FEW HOURS AGO...AND THEN WOBBLED A LITTLE TO THE EAST. CURRENTLY IT APPEARS THAT THE CENTER IS BACK ON A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK...OR 030/4. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A BUILDING 500 MB RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF FAY OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 DAYS. THIS EVOLUTION OF THE STEERING PATTERN WOULD BEGIN TO BLOCK THE NORTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN ABOUT 48 HOURS. TRACK MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT FAY WILL TURN BACK TOWARD THE COAST AFTER MOVING JUST OFFSHORE. THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE TO THE NHC TRACK FORECAST ON THIS PACKAGE. THIS IS CLOSE TO OR A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/0300Z 27.7N 80.7W 45 KT 12HR VT 20/1200Z 28.4N 80.3W 50 KT 24HR VT 21/0000Z 29.0N 80.2W 60 KT 36HR VT 21/1200Z 29.5N 80.8W 65 KT 48HR VT 22/0000Z 29.9N 81.7W 65 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 23/0000Z 30.5N 83.5W 30 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 24/0000Z 31.0N 85.5W 25 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 25/0000Z 32.0N 87.5W 20 KT...INLAND...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
