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| #209328 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:03 PM 21.Aug.2008) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008 1100 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2008 FAY HAS STILL REFUSED TO DECIDEDLY BEGIN MOVING WESTWARD AS WE AND THE MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING...BUT IT APPEARS TO BE DRIFTING WESTWARD...WITH THE CENTER LOCATED JUST INLAND FROM THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST. THE OVERALL APPEARANCE IN RADAR IMAGERY HAS DEGRADED SLIGHTLY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT WSR-88D VELOCITIES SUGGEST THAT SURFACE WINDS OVER WATER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER REMAIN AS STRONG AS ABOUT 50 KT...ALTHOUGH THAT RADAR FEATURE HAS BEEN STEADILY SHRINKING. EVEN THOUGH WE SAID THIS LAST NIGHT...AND IT DID NOT HAPPEN...ALL OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT FAY SHOULD START TRULY MOVING WESTWARD WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. THAT RIDGE SHOULD KEEP FAY ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD PATH DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE MODEL CONSENSUS TRACK HAS NOT CHANGED TOO MUCH SINCE THE LAST CYCLE...SO THE OFFICIAL TRACK REMAINS ALONG THAT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...TAKING FAY ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE COAST. SOME MODELS SUCH AS THE ECMWF AND HWRF CONTINUE TO FORECAST A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF...WHILE THE GFS...GFDL...AND UKMET FORECAST FAY TO REMAIN INLAND OVER THE PANHANDLE. LATER...AT 3 TO 5 DAYS...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS ANOTHER SLOWDOWN AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND BLOCKS FAY'S FORWARD PROGRESS AGAIN. THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK SHOWS ESSENTIALLY NO MOTION BEYOND 72 HOURS. THE EXACT TRACK COULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON HOW STRONG FAY IS AFTER CROSSING THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. IF THE MORE SOUTHERLY TRACKS ARE CORRECT AND FAY SPENDS A GOOD BIT OF TIME CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF...IT COULD RESTRENGTHEN BEYOND 24 HOURS...BUT IF THE OPPOSITE OCCURS AND IT NEVER EMERGES BACK OVER WATER...PERMANENT WEAKENING TO A DEPRESSION COULD HAPPEN WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. SINCE THE OFFICIAL TRACK REMAINS ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE COAST...AND USING THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS AS GUIDANCE...THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST KEEPS FAY AS A BORDERLINE TROPICAL STORM THROUGH 48 HOURS...REQUIRING THE ISSUANCE OF NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS ALONG THE FLORIDA GULF COAST. REGARDLESS OF ITS EXACT TRACK...FAY WILL BE MOVING RATHER SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...POSING A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOOD HAZARD TO A VERY LARGE AREA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/0300Z 29.3N 81.4W 50 KT 12HR VT 22/1200Z 29.4N 82.3W 40 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 23/0000Z 29.6N 83.7W 35 KT...OVER GULF OF MEXICO 36HR VT 23/1200Z 30.0N 85.3W 35 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 24/0000Z 30.4N 86.7W 35 KT...NEAR COAST 72HR VT 25/0000Z 31.0N 88.5W 30 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 26/0000Z 31.2N 89.0W 25 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 27/0000Z 31.5N 89.5W 25 KT...INLAND $$ FORECASTER KNABB |
