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Storm #Arlene still firing convection near the center today while spinning fish
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#211498 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:52 PM 29.Aug.2008)
TCMAT2
HURRICANE GUSTAV FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
2100 UTC FRI AUG 29 2008

AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE
LOWER FLORIDA KEYS FROM WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO
DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND
FOR THE WESTERN CUBAN PROVINCES OF ISLA DE JUVENTUD...PINAR DEL
RIO...LA HABANA...AND CIUDAD DE LA HABANA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA...AND FOR THE
CENTRAL CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...CIENFUEGOS...VILLA
CLARA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...AND GRANMA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 79.7W AT 29/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 40SE 25SW 40NW.
34 KT.......140NE 90SE 70SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 79.7W AT 29/2100Z
AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 79.2W

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 20.1N 80.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 21.7N 82.8W...OVER ISLE OF YOUTH
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 23.4N 84.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 25.2N 86.8W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...160NE 130SE 120SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 28.0N 90.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 120SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 30.5N 92.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 32.0N 94.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N 79.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER KNABB