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| #211578 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:34 PM 29.Aug.2008) TCMAT2 HURRICANE GUSTAV FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008 0300 UTC SAT AUG 30 2008 AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...CIENFUEGOS...AND VILLA CLARA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS WEST OF KEY WEST TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND FOR THE WESTERN CUBAN PROVINCES OF ISLA DE JUVENTUD...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...AND CIUDAD DE LA HABANA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF GRANMA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA...AND FOR THE CENTRAL CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...CIENFUEGOS...VILLA CLARA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...AND CAMAGUEY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO KEY WEST. INTERESTS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GUSTAV. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 80.4W AT 30/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 974 MB EYE DIAMETER 25 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 75NE 50SE 35SW 50NW. 34 KT.......140NE 120SE 90SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 80.4W AT 30/0300Z AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 80.0W FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 20.6N 81.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 35SE 30SW 35NW. 50 KT... 85NE 60SE 45SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 125SE 90SW 125NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 22.3N 83.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 35SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...160NE 125SE 105SW 125NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 24.0N 85.6W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 35SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...160NE 125SE 105SW 125NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 25.7N 87.6W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 75SE 60SW 75NW. 34 KT...160NE 130SE 120SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 28.5N 90.5W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 75SE 60SW 75NW. 34 KT...160NE 140SE 120SW 140NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 30.5N 93.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 31.5N 94.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 80.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
