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Storm #Arlene still firing convection near the center today while spinning fish
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#212609 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:01 PM 01.Sep.2008)
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 34
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
1100 PM EDT MON SEP 01 2008

THE RADAR PRESENTATION OF GUSTAV HAS CONTINUED TO DEGRADE THIS
EVENING AS THE STORM HAS MOVED INLAND OVER LOUISIANA. RECENT
MAXIMUM DOPPLER VELOCITIES FROM THE LAKE CHARLES RADAR HAVE
BEEN AROUND 65-70 KT AT ABOUT 4500 FT. THIS EQUATES TO ABOUT
50 KT AT THE SURFACE...THEREFORE GUSTAV IS DOWNGRADED TO A
TROPICAL STORM. GUSTAV SHOULD CONTINUE WEAKENING AND IT IS
EXPECTED THAT IT WILL BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON TUESDAY...
AND A REMNANT LOW IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/11...A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE.
THE FORWARD MOTION OF GUSTAV IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN MORE DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
NORTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THE FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT SHOWS A LITTLE
MORE NORTHEASTWARD MOTION AT DAYS 3 AND 4. MOST OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS ARE NOW SUGGESTING THAT THE GUSTAV'S CIRCULATION WILL BECOME
ELONGATED AS IT INTERACTS WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES. THE UPDATED FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR THE REMNANTS
GUSTAV TO BECOME MERGE WITH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN ABOUT 5
DAYS...IF NOT A LITTLE SOONER.

INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST IS BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE. THE MAIN THREAT FROM GUSTAV
NOW SHIFTS TO THE POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/0300Z 31.1N 92.7W 50 KT
12HR VT 02/1200Z 32.0N 93.7W 35 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 03/0000Z 32.7N 94.6W 25 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 03/1200Z 33.1N 95.2W 25 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 04/0000Z 33.7N 95.6W 20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 05/0000Z 35.0N 95.5W 20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 06/0000Z 36.0N 95.0W 20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 07/0000Z...MERGED WITH FRONT

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/FRANKLIN