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| #212689 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:43 AM 02.Sep.2008) TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 35 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008 500 AM EDT TUE SEP 02 2008 SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OVER LOUISIANA INDICATE THAT GUSTAV HAS WEAKENED BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. CURRENT INTENSITY IS NOW ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 30 KT. THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPIN DOWN BUT AT A MORE GRADUAL RATE..IN GENERAL ACCORDANCE WITH THE EXPONENTIAL INLAND DECAY MODEL. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT GUSTAV OR ITS REMNANTS WILL INTERACT WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE AND MERGE WITH THAT FEATURE IN 3 TO 4 DAYS. THEREFORE THE FORECAST SHOWS DISSIPATION BY DAY 5. INITIAL MOTION IS AROUND 315/9. ADDITIONAL DECELERATION IS LIKELY AS THE STEERING CURRENT WEAKENS FURTHER DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER...THE CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE CALLS FOR A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST AS MID-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW BEGINS TO IMPACT THE SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS GUIDANCE. ASIDE FROM SEVERE LOCAL STORMS...THE THREAT FROM GUSTAV HAS SHIFTED TO HEAVY RAINS AND THE ASSOCIATED INLAND FLOODING. THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON GUSTAV FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT2 AND WMO HEADER WTNT32 KWNH...BEGINNING AT 10 AM CDT. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/0900Z 31.7N 93.4W 30 KT 12HR VT 02/1800Z 32.4N 94.2W 25 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 03/0600Z 33.0N 94.8W 25 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 03/1800Z 33.5N 95.2W 20 KT...INLAND...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 04/0600Z 34.1N 95.2W 20 KT...INLAND...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 05/0600Z 35.0N 94.0W 20 KT...INLAND...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 06/0600Z 35.5N 92.5W 20 KT...INLAND...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
