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| #214016 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:01 PM 05.Sep.2008) TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOSEPHINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102008 1100 PM EDT FRI SEP 05 2008 EXCEPT FOR A SMALL BURST OF CONVECTION THAT HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED ABOUT 120 NM NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER OF JOSEPHINE...THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN UNABLE TO PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT AREA OF DEEP THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR WELL OVER 12 HOURS. IN MOST CASES A SYSTEM LIKE THIS WOULD NORMALLY BE DECLARED A REMNANT LOW. SINCE THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME CHANCE FOR RE-STRENGTHENING LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD... ADVISORIES WILL BE CONTINUED FOR NOW. ADVISORIES COULD BE DISCONTINUED SOON...BUT COULD ALWAYS BE RESTARTED AGAIN IF THE SYSTEM RE-INTENSIFIES DOWN THE ROAD. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AHEAD OF JOSEPHINE ARE NOT ALL THAT GREAT. THERMODYNAMICALLY...THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OVER AN AREA OF LOW OCEAN HEAT CONTENT FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO. DYNAMICALLY... STRONG SOUTHERLY SHEAR CAUSED BY AN UPPER LOW TO THE WEST AND AN ANTICYCLONE TO THE EAST OF JOSEPHINE IS NOT EXPECTED TO ABATE FOR ANOTHER 36 HOURS. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR SOME WEAKENING...ON THE VERGE OF A REMNANT LOW...THROUGH 48 HOURS. THEREAFTER...CONDITIONS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT AND THE FORECAST ALLOWS FOR THIS BY SHOWING SOME SLIGHT RESTRENGTHENING. THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS SHOW JOSEPHINE BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM AGAIN IN 4-5 DAYS...BUT WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE IF ANYTHING SURVIVES THE NEXT TWO DAYS BEFORE ACCEPTING THIS SOLUTION. JOSEPHINE IS MOVING SLOWLY AT 295/6. WITH THE DEPRESSION BECOMING A SHALLOWER SYSTEM AND STEERED INCREASINGLY BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW...THE FORECAST TRACK HAS SHIFTED JUST A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/0300Z 16.3N 35.8W 30 KT 12HR VT 06/1200Z 16.8N 36.9W 30 KT 24HR VT 07/0000Z 17.6N 38.7W 25 KT 36HR VT 07/1200Z 18.7N 40.9W 25 KT 48HR VT 08/0000Z 19.8N 43.0W 25 KT 72HR VT 09/0000Z 22.0N 46.5W 30 KT 96HR VT 10/0000Z 24.0N 49.5W 30 KT 120HR VT 11/0000Z 25.5N 52.0W 30 KT $$ FORECASTER BERG/AVILA |
