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| #362632 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:55 AM 23.Jul.2010) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032010 1100 AM EDT FRI JUL 23 2010 BONNIE IS NOT A WELL-ORGANIZED TROPICAL STORM. DUE TO STRONG SHEAR...THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE IS DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE STRONGEST CONVECTION WHICH IS ALREADY OVER SOUTHEAST FLORIDA. LITTLE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS TRAILING THE CYCLONE. SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS NEARBY INDICATE THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 35 KNOTS AND THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A FEW RAINBANDS MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. BONNIE WILL BE MOVING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY WHERE THE CIRCULATION COULD BECOME EVEN MORE DISRUPTED. THE ENVIRONMENT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING AND IN FACT...GLOBAL AND HURRICANE DYNAMICAL MODELS INSIST ON WEAKENING OR EVEN DISSIPATING THE CYCLONE GRADUALLY. BONNIE COULD DEGENERATE INTO A TROPICAL WAVE AS IT CROSSES FLORIDA BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL SHOWS SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...FOLLOWING THE LGEM AND SHIPS STATISTICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE. BONNIE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN WELL-ESTABLISHED STEERING CURRENTS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES AND THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. BONNIE IS MOVING RAPIDLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 KNOTS...AND BECAUSE THE PATTERN IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH...THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED BEYOND 36 HOURS. MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE...OR SHOULD I SAY...THE MODELS THAT DO NOT WEAKEN THE CYCLONE...SHOW A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE MODEL SPREAD. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/1500Z 25.4N 80.3W 35 KT 12HR VT 24/0000Z 26.2N 83.0W 35 KT 24HR VT 24/1200Z 27.5N 86.0W 40 KT 36HR VT 25/0000Z 29.0N 88.5W 45 KT 48HR VT 25/1200Z 30.5N 90.5W 30 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 26/1200Z 33.0N 93.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96HR VT 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS |
