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#382712 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:40 PM 12.Oct.2010)
TCMAT3
HURRICANE PAULA SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010
1745 UTC TUE OCT 12 2010

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE...
INCLUDING COZUMEL

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF PUNTA
GRUESA
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CABO CATOCHE TO SAN FELIPE

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36
HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 85.8W AT 12/1745Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 45SE 45SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 85.8W AT 12/1745Z
AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 85.4W

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 19.9N 86.4W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 21.0N 86.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 21.5N 86.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 45NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 22.0N 86.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 45SW 45NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 22.0N 85.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 35SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 75SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 22.0N 85.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 21.5N 84.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 85.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA