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| #382974 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:47 PM 13.Oct.2010) TCDAT3 HURRICANE PAULA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010 400 PM CDT WED OCT 13 2010 A HURRICANE IS CROSSING BETWEEN THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA AND EASTERN YUCATAN...BUT WITHOUT MODERN TECHNOLOGY NO ONE WOULD KNOW IT WAS THERE. HAVING SAID THAT...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RECONNAISSANCE DATA SHOW THAT PAULA HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN. THE SHEAR DISRUPTED THE CLOUD PATTERN AND THE MID- AND LOW-LEVEL CENTERS ARE BECOMING GRADUALLY DETACHED. HOWEVER...THE HURRICANE STILL HAS A WELL-DEFINED CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH STRONG CONVECTIVE BANDS TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER...AND A SMALL 8 N MI EYE AS REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT. DVORAK T-NUMBERS AND AIRCRAFT DATA STILL SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS...BUT GIVEN THE EXPECTED STRONG SHEAR...AND THE EFFECT OF THE HIGH TERRAIN OF CUBA...WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED. PAULA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW OVER CUBA IN ABOUT THREE DAYS...POSSIBLY SOONER. PAULA MOVED LITTLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT NOW IT APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 025 DEGREES AT 4 KNOTS. THE HURRICANE ALREADY RECURVED AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THIS PATTERN IS FORECAST TO STEER PAULA ON A GENERAL EASTWARD TRACK NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA UNTIL DISSIPATION. THERE IS CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE FORECAST BECOMES HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SINCE THE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE IS LARGE. IN GENERAL...MODELS MAINTAIN THE MID-LEVEL CENTER MOVING EASTWARD AND KEEP A WEAK REMNANT LOW MEANDERING NEAR CUBA. BY THEN...PAULA IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A TROPICAL CYCLONE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/2100Z 21.7N 85.6W 75 KT 12HR VT 14/0600Z 22.1N 85.2W 65 KT 24HR VT 14/1800Z 22.7N 84.0W 55 KT 36HR VT 15/0600Z 23.0N 82.5W 45 KT 48HR VT 15/1800Z 23.0N 81.0W 35 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 16/1800Z 22.5N 79.0W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96HR VT 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
