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#4059 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:49 PM 09.Aug.2004)
TCMAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032004
1745Z MON AUG 09 2004

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 61.1W AT 09/1745Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 19 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 61.1W AT 09/1745Z
AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 59.2W

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 12.0N 63.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 13.0N 66.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 14.0N 70.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 15.0N 73.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 17.0N 78.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 19.0N 81.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 21.5N 85.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.7N 61.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z

FORECASTER PASCH