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#4061 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:36 PM 09.Aug.2004)
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
145 PM EDT MON AUG 09 2004

ALTHOUGH THE DEEP CONVECTION IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS IT WAS
EARLIER...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE ISLANDS OF TRINIDAD AND
MARGARITA SHOW WEST-SOUTHWEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS OF AROUND 10
KT RESPECTIVELY. SINCE THERE IS NOW A DEFINITE CLOSED CIRCULATION
AT THE SURFACE...THE SYSTEM NEAR THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS BEING
NUMBERED AT THIS TIME. VISIBLE IMAGERY DEPICTS A VERY
WELL-ORGANZIED SYSTEM WITH DISTINCT BANDING FEATURES. THE
UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD...SO GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST. THIS IS SOMEWHAT LESS THAN THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.

INITIAL MOTION IS 280/19. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHICH
SHOULD MAINTAIN A WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. LATER IN
THE PERIOD...CONSIDERABLE SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED IS CALLED
FOR AS THE CYCLONE NEARS A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THIS TRACK IS A REASONABLE BLEND OF THE GFS AND GFDL MODEL
OUTPUT.

FORECASTER PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 09/1745Z 11.7N 61.1W 30 KT
12HR VT 10/0000Z 12.0N 63.0W 35 KT
24HR VT 10/1200Z 13.0N 66.5W 40 KT
36HR VT 11/0000Z 14.0N 70.0W 45 KT
48HR VT 11/1200Z 15.0N 73.0W 50 KT
72HR VT 12/1200Z 17.0N 78.0W 65 KT
96HR VT 13/1200Z 19.0N 81.5W 70 KT
120HR VT 14/1200Z 21.5N 85.0W 70 KT