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#4071 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:36 PM 09.Aug.2004)
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON AUG 09 2004

THE TROPICAL CYCLONE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT IMPRESSIVE ORGANIZATION OF
THE OUTER CLOUD STRUCTURE...WITH IMPRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. HOWEVER...THERE IS NO CONCENTRATION OF DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER AND A LACK OF CONVECTION OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. GIVEN WHAT APPEARS TO BE A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT...STEADY STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL WIND
SPEED FORECAST IS MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN THE LATEST SHIPS MODEL
RUN...MAINLY DUE TO THE INHERENT UNCERTAINTY IN TROPICAL CYCLONE
INTENSITY PREDICTION.

MOTION CONTINUES AT AROUND 280/19. NO MATERIAL CHANGES HAVE BEEN
MADE TO THE TRACK FORECAST AND THE REASONING BEHIND IT. A
MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE TO THE NORTH OF THE
GREATER ANTILLES. THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN A WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IN THE
LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD...A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE DUE TO A LARGE
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IS EXPECTED TO
CAUSE A SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED AND A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
RIGHT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES ROUGHLY BETWEEN THE GFS AND GFDL
SOLUTIONS.

FORECASTER PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 09/2100Z 11.8N 62.0W 30 KT
12HR VT 10/0600Z 12.5N 64.7W 35 KT
24HR VT 10/1800Z 13.4N 68.0W 40 KT
36HR VT 11/0600Z 14.3N 71.1W 45 KT
48HR VT 11/1800Z 15.3N 74.2W 50 KT
72HR VT 12/1800Z 17.5N 79.0W 60 KT
96HR VT 13/1800Z 19.5N 82.5W 65 KT
120HR VT 14/1800Z 22.0N 85.5W 70 KT