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#4095 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:58 PM 09.Aug.2004)
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT MON AUG 09 2004

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE APPEARS TO BE HOLDING ITS OWN AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THE TYPICALLY UNFAVORABLE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. WHILE BANDING
IS NOT QUITE AS IMPRESSIVE ARE EARLIER TODAY...NEW CONVECTION IS
FORMING NEAR THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...THE SATELLITE
SIGNATURE STILL APPEARS DISORGANIZED AS A NEW CENTER APPEARS TO BE
FORMING FURTHER NORTH. ACCORDINGLY...THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD
AT 30 KT BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KT AND 35 KT
FROM SAB AND TAFB RESPECTIVELY. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD
AND THE DEPRESSION IS WITHIN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.
HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE SHORT TERM
INTENSITY FORECAST GIVEN THE LACK OF ORGANIZATION. SLOW
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOLLOWED BY A
MORE STEADY STRENGTHENING THROUGH 72 HOURS.

MOTION CONTINUES AT A BRISK 285/20. THE OVERALL TRACK FORECAST
REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED AS A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE SHOULD
REMAIN IN PLACE TO THE NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES AND STEER THE
DEPRESSION ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR
THE NEXT TWO DAYS. GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 48 HOURS
BUT THEN BEGINS TO DIVERGE AS DIFFERENCES ARISE IN THE DEPTH OF THE
STORM AND THE EVOLUTION OF A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE CAUSED BY A
LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. NOGAPS
MAINTAINS A SHALLOW STORM AND TAKES A MORE WESTWARD TRACK WHILE THE
GFS AND GFDL DEPICT A DEEPER SYSTEM WHICH TURNS MORE NORTHWARD. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY NORTH BUT NOT NEARLY AS FAR
AS THE GFDL OR GFS WHICH BOTH TAKE THE STORM OVER JAMAICA.

FORECASTER RHOME/LAWRENCE

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/0300Z 12.4N 64.1W 30 KT
12HR VT 10/1200Z 13.1N 66.7W 30 KT
24HR VT 11/0000Z 14.2N 70.1W 35 KT
36HR VT 11/1200Z 15.3N 73.4W 45 KT
48HR VT 12/0000Z 16.4N 76.2W 50 KT
72HR VT 13/0000Z 18.5N 80.0W 60 KT
96HR VT 14/0000Z 20.8N 83.3W 65 KT
120HR VT 15/0000Z 24.0N 86.0W 70 KT