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#4121 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:32 AM 10.Aug.2004)
TCMAT3
TROPICAL STORM CHARLEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032004
1500Z TUE AUG 10 2004

AT 11 AM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR JAMAICA.

INTERESTS IN AND AROUND THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 68.3W AT 10/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 21 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 50SE 0SW 75NW.
12 FT SEAS..175NE 100SE 50SW 175NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 68.3W AT 10/1500Z
AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 67.3W

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 14.5N 71.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 0SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 15.7N 75.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 30SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 17.0N 78.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 18.3N 80.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 20.5N 84.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 24.0N 86.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 28.0N 87.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 68.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z

FORECASTER PASCH