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#4122 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:38 AM 10.Aug.2004)
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM CHARLEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE AUG 10 2004

THE TROPICAL STORM CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED.
BANDING FEATURES HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED AND DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT...35 KT...AND 45 KT...FROM
AFWA...SAB...AND TAFB RESPECTIVELY. CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 40
KT. AN AIR FORCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO CHECK OUT THE STORM LATER
TODAY AND SHOULD GIVE A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE STRENGTH OF CHARLEY.
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS PARTICULARLY PROMINENT OVER THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE...AND THE ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
STRENGTHENING. THUS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A STEADY INCREASE
IN STRENGTH BUT IS MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN THE SHIPS OR GFDL
GUIDANCE. CHARLEY IS LIKELY TO BE A HURRICANE OVER THE NORTHWEST
CARIBBEAN BUT THERE IS ALWAYS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN
INTENSITY PREDICTIONS AT 72 HOURS AND BEYOND.

THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED A BIT BASED ON A RECENT QUIKSCAT
OVERPASS...AND THE 12 FT SEAS WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON A REPORT FROM
SHIP ELWR5 TO THE NORTHWEST OF CHARLEY.

THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE ESTIMATED MOTION.
CHARLEY REMAINS EMBEDDED IN A SWIFT EASTERLY STEERING CURRENT TO
THE SOUTH OF A STRONG DEEP LAYER HIGH. TRACK GUIDANCE IS RATHER
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH ABOUT 72 HOURS...BUT BECOMES MORE
DIVERGENT THEREAFTER. BY THAT TIME...THE STEERING CURRENTS WILL
LIKELY WEAKEN AS A RESULT OF A LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE GFS AND GFDL MODELS ARE THE
EASTERNMOST OF THE ENSEMBLE WITH THE NOGAPS AND U.K. MET. OFFICE
TRACKS SUBSTANTIALLY FARTHER WEST OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. HOWEVER
THESE LATTER TWO TRACKS ARE PROBABLY TOO FAR TO THE LEFT BECAUSE OF
AN UNREALISTICALLY WEAK VORTEX IN THE SIMULATION. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE GFS/GFDL SOLUTIONS.

FORECASTER PASCH/BROWN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/1500Z 13.7N 68.3W 40 KT
12HR VT 11/0000Z 14.5N 71.3W 45 KT
24HR VT 11/1200Z 15.7N 75.0W 50 KT
36HR VT 12/0000Z 17.0N 78.0W 55 KT
48HR VT 12/1200Z 18.3N 80.5W 60 KT
72HR VT 13/1200Z 20.5N 84.5W 70 KT
96HR VT 14/1200Z 24.0N 86.5W 80 KT
120HR VT 15/1200Z 28.0N 87.0W 85 KT