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Tracking a Caribbean Wave and keeping an eye on the potential for new Caribbean Gyre/Trough development next week
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 16 (Nate) , Major: 33 (Maria) Florida - Any: 43 (Irma) Major: 43 (Irma)
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#4155 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:59 PM 10.Aug.2004)
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM CHARLEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE AUG 10 2004

THERE HAS BEEN A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN OUR TRACK GUIDANCE FOR CHARLEY
THIS AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS THAT THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE SHOWING A
GREATER INFLUENCE OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES TROUGH THAN IN
EARLIER RUNS...ERODING MORE OF THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND ALLOWING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO CURVE
NORTHWARD SOONER THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED. BASED ON THIS GUIDANCE
CHANGE...THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED SUBSTANTIALLY
TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONES. THIS IS A LITTLE WEST OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND CLOSE TO THE LATEST NOGAPS RUN.
ALSO...SINCE THE FORWARD SPEED HAS NOT SLOWED THUS FAR...THE NHC
FORECAST IS FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE. NEAR THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...IF CHARLEY FOLLOWS THE INDICATED TRACK...THE
SPEED MAY VERY WELL BE TOO SLOW BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY IN JUST WHERE THIS SYSTEM WILL END UP IN 3-5 DAYS.
IF THE GUIDANCE FOR THE NEXT PACKAGE IS SIMILAR...THE OFFICIAL TRACK
MAY HAVE BE SHIFTED A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE EAST.

ON THEIR FIRST PENETRATION INTO THIS STORM...THE HURRICANE HUNTERS
REPORTED A 999 MB CENTRAL PRESSURE. THE AIRCRAFT HAS NOT YET
SAMPLED ALL QUADRANTS OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...BUT BASED ON THIS
PRESSURE READING THE WINDS HAVE BEEN INCREASED A LITTLE. THE
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW LOOKS STRONG AND THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WEAK OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THEREFORE CONDITIONS APPEAR TO
BE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION. DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY
RATHER WEAK...BUT THIS MAY VERY WELL BE A DIURNAL FLUCTUATION. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS CONTINUED STRENGTHENING BUT REMAINS MORE
CONSERVATIVE THAN THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.

FORECASTER PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/2100Z 15.2N 70.8W 45 KT
12HR VT 11/0600Z 16.3N 74.0W 50 KT
24HR VT 11/1800Z 17.7N 77.4W 55 KT
36HR VT 12/0600Z 19.4N 80.0W 55 KT
48HR VT 12/1800Z 21.0N 82.0W 65 KT
72HR VT 13/1800Z 25.0N 83.5W 75 KT
96HR VT 14/1800Z 29.0N 83.5W 85 KT
120HR VT 15/1800Z 33.0N 81.5W 25 KT...INLAND