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Tracking a Caribbean Wave and keeping an eye on the potential for new Caribbean Gyre/Trough development next week
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 15 (Nate) , Major: 33 (Maria) Florida - Any: 43 (Irma) Major: 43 (Irma)
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#4206 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:18 AM 11.Aug.2004)
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM CHARLEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT WED AUG 11 2004

CHARLEY HAS MAINTAINED A SOLID CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST DURING THE
PAST FEW HOURS...AND OUTFLOW REMAINS EXCELLENT IN ALL QUADRANTS
EXCEPT THE SOUTHWEST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 55 KT BASED
ON DVORAK T NUMBERS OF 3.5 FROM TAFB AND AFWA.

THE RAPID MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED AT
295/21...BASED LARGELY ON CONTINUITY BUT ALSO ON RECENT MICROWAVE
PASSES THAT SUGGEST THE CENTER IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. CHARLEY IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 24
HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST...NORTH...AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A STRONG DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES. MODELS ARE VERY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ALONG THE
PREVIOUS TRACK BUT ARE ONCE AGAIN SUGGESTING A FASTER
MOTION...BRINGING CHARLEY INTO THE EXTREME EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
WITHIN 48 HOURS...AND ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES ON
DAYS THREE AND FOUR. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
BY DAY FOUR OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
CLOSEST TO A BLEND OF THE GFS AND GFDL SOLUTIONS.

THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF CHARLEY REMAINS FAVORABLE...AND THERE IS NO
REASON WHY STEADY INTENSIFICATION SHOULD NOT OCCUR...OTHER THAN
BRIEF INTERACTIONS WITH LAND DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SHIPS
AND GFDL GUIDANCE BOTH BRING THE SYSTEM TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN
LESS THAN 24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS...REACHING
HURRICANE STRENGTH IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN BY 24 HOURS...WITH
SOME FURTHER STRENGTHENING EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WHERE
WATERS WILL BE QUITE WARM AND THE VERTICAL SHEAR STILL WEAK.

SINCE THE 36 HOUR FORECAST BRINGS THE 34 KT WIND RADII JUST SOUTH OF
THE FLORIDA KEYS...A HURRICANE WATCH IS ISSUED AT THIS TIME FROM
DRY TORTUGAS TO CRAIG KEY.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN/KNABB

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 11/0900Z 16.9N 74.7W 55 KT
12HR VT 11/1800Z 18.1N 77.3W 60 KT...OVER JAMAICA
24HR VT 12/0600Z 19.9N 80.0W 65 KT
36HR VT 12/1800Z 22.3N 81.8W 70 KT...OVER CUBA
48HR VT 13/0600Z 25.0N 82.5W 75 KT
72HR VT 14/0600Z 34.0N 79.5W 55 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 15/0600Z 43.5N 72.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 16/0600Z 50.0N 59.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL