Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane CenterHurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season officially over. 2018's runs June 1st-Nov 30th, 2018.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 68 (Nate) , Major: 86 (Maria) Florida - Any: 96 (Irma) Major: 96 (Irma)
None
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
ADS
Login to remove ads

 
Show Selection:
Show plain - Location:
#4388 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:09 AM 12.Aug.2004)
TCDAT3
HURRICANE CHARLEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU AUG 12 2004

THERE HAS BEEN A LEFTWARD SHIFT IN MUCH OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE THIS
MORNING...WITH THE UKMET AND THE GFDL SHOWING THE GREATEST CHANGE.
DROPSONDE DATA FROM THE G-IV MISSION LAST NIGHT SHOWED A LITTLE
MORE RIDGING OVER WESTERN CUBA AND THIS MAY HAVE BEEN RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE SHIFT. I DO NOT WANT TO MAKE ANY RADICAL CHANGE TO THE
TRACK UNTIL THIS TREND CAN BE CONFIRMED...AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK
HAS BEEN SHIFTED JUST A LITTLE TO THE LEFT FOR THIS ADVISORY. MOST
OF THE GUIDANCE CURRENTLY SHOWS A LANDFALL FROM THE TAMPA AREA
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE BIG BEND AREA. BECAUSE CHARLEY IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA COAST AT A SHARPLY OBLIQUE
ANGLE...IT IS UNUSUALLY DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT CHARLEY'S
LANDFALL...AS SMALL ERRORS IN THE TRACK FORECAST WOULD CORRESPOND
TO LARGE ERRORS IN THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF LANDFALL.

RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE THAT CHARLEY STRENGTHENED
OVERNIGHT...WITH PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF JUST UNDER 100 KT.
BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT CHARLEY SHOULD
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN. CURRENTLY AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST
OF THE CYCLONE IS LIMITING OUTFLOW IN THAT QUADRANT...BUT THIS MAY
BECOME LESS OF A FACTOR WHEN CHARLEY ENTERS THE GULF. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TAKES CHARLEY TO JUST SHY OF MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS...BUT
IT COULD JUST AS EASILY REACH THAT THRESHOLD PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
SHOULD THIS OCCUR THE POTENTIAL FOR EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE
EXISTS.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/0900Z 18.6N 79.9W 75 KT
12HR VT 12/1800Z 20.3N 81.3W 85 KT
24HR VT 13/0600Z 23.3N 82.5W 85 KT
36HR VT 13/1800Z 26.3N 83.0W 95 KT
48HR VT 14/0600Z 30.5N 82.0W 60 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 15/0600Z 40.0N 76.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 16/0600Z 46.5N 67.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 17/0600Z...ABSORBED