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Chill falls over the Atlantic as the official season heads towards close
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| #4388 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:09 AM 12.Aug.2004) TCDAT3 HURRICANE CHARLEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT THU AUG 12 2004 THERE HAS BEEN A LEFTWARD SHIFT IN MUCH OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE THIS MORNING...WITH THE UKMET AND THE GFDL SHOWING THE GREATEST CHANGE. DROPSONDE DATA FROM THE G-IV MISSION LAST NIGHT SHOWED A LITTLE MORE RIDGING OVER WESTERN CUBA AND THIS MAY HAVE BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHIFT. I DO NOT WANT TO MAKE ANY RADICAL CHANGE TO THE TRACK UNTIL THIS TREND CAN BE CONFIRMED...AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED JUST A LITTLE TO THE LEFT FOR THIS ADVISORY. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE CURRENTLY SHOWS A LANDFALL FROM THE TAMPA AREA NORTHWARD THROUGH THE BIG BEND AREA. BECAUSE CHARLEY IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA COAST AT A SHARPLY OBLIQUE ANGLE...IT IS UNUSUALLY DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT CHARLEY'S LANDFALL...AS SMALL ERRORS IN THE TRACK FORECAST WOULD CORRESPOND TO LARGE ERRORS IN THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF LANDFALL. RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE THAT CHARLEY STRENGTHENED OVERNIGHT...WITH PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF JUST UNDER 100 KT. BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT CHARLEY SHOULD CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN. CURRENTLY AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST OF THE CYCLONE IS LIMITING OUTFLOW IN THAT QUADRANT...BUT THIS MAY BECOME LESS OF A FACTOR WHEN CHARLEY ENTERS THE GULF. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TAKES CHARLEY TO JUST SHY OF MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS...BUT IT COULD JUST AS EASILY REACH THAT THRESHOLD PRIOR TO LANDFALL. SHOULD THIS OCCUR THE POTENTIAL FOR EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE EXISTS. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/0900Z 18.6N 79.9W 75 KT 12HR VT 12/1800Z 20.3N 81.3W 85 KT 24HR VT 13/0600Z 23.3N 82.5W 85 KT 36HR VT 13/1800Z 26.3N 83.0W 95 KT 48HR VT 14/0600Z 30.5N 82.0W 60 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 15/0600Z 40.0N 76.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 16/0600Z 46.5N 67.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 17/0600Z...ABSORBED |
