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#4680 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:38 AM 13.Aug.2004)
TCDAT3
HURRICANE CHARLEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI AUG 13 2004

RADAR AND RECONNAISSANCE DATA SHOW THAT AFTER CROSSING CUBA...THE
EYE STILL REMAINS WELL-DEFINED WITH ABOUT AN 18 N MI DIAMETER. MAX
WINDS REPORTED BY THE PLANE WERE 104 KNOTS AT 700 MB WITH AN
EXTRAPOLATED PRESSURE OF 968 MB AND 970 MB BY A DROP. KEY WEST
RADAR SHOWED DOPPLER WINDS HIGHER THAN 100 KNOTS. INITIAL INTENSITY
IS BEING ADJUSTED TO 95 KNOTS. THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE WEAK FOR
THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND THE WATER IS WARM. THEREFORE....CHARLEY IS
LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE LANDFALL.

CHARLEY IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 16 KNOTS. THERE
HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN GUIDANCE AND MOST OF THE MODELS UNANIMOUSLY
BRING THE HURRICANE ON A NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTH-NORTHEAST TRACK.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS THE HURRICANE VERY CLOSE TO THE WEST
COAST OF FLORIDA BRINGING THE CENTER INLAND WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
BETWEEN 12 AND 24 HOURS.

DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TRACK FORECAST...THE HURRICANE
WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA
TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER. THE EXTENTION OF THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WIND RADII TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER REQUIRES A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR A PORTION OF THE EAST FLORIDA AND GEORGIA COASTS AS
INDICATED.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 13/0900Z 23.9N 82.9W 95 KT
12HR VT 13/1800Z 26.3N 82.9W 105 KT
24HR VT 14/0600Z 29.8N 82.5W 80 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 14/1800Z 33.0N 81.0W 40 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 15/0600Z 38.0N 78.5W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 16/0600Z 45.5N 73.5W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 17/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW