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#4734 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:52 AM 13.Aug.2004)
TCMAT3
HURRICANE CHARLEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032004
1500Z FRI AUG 13 2004

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE
DRY TORTUGAS TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...AND FOR THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST FROM EAST CAPE SABLE NORTHWARD TO THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER. A
HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA AND
GEORGIA COASTS FROM COCOA BEACH FLORIDA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO OCEAN REEF...AND ALONG THE SOUTH
FLORIDA MAINLAND FROM OCEAN REEF TO EAST CAPE SABLE...INCLUDING
FLORIDA BAY AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED
NORTHWARD TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS
NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST FROM OCEAN REEF
NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF COCOA BEACH AND FROM NORTH OF ALTAMAHA SOUND
GEORGIA TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM FLAGLER
BEACH FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER NEAR THE
GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 82.8W AT 13/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 75SW 75NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 140SE 60SW 200NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 82.8W AT 13/1500Z
AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 82.9W

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 27.7N 82.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE 75SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 31.4N 81.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...135NE 135SE 25SW 25NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 35.8N 79.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...125NE 125SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 40.2N 76.8W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 46.5N 71.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.2N 82.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z

FORECASTER LAWRENCE