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Tracking a Caribbean Wave and keeping an eye on the potential for new Caribbean Gyre/Trough development next week
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 14 (Nate) , Major: 32 (Maria) Florida - Any: 42 (Irma) Major: 42 (Irma)
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#4879 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:59 PM 13.Aug.2004)
TCMAT3
HURRICANE CHARLEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032004
2100Z FRI AUG 13 2004

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM EAST CAPE SABLE NORTHWARD
TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER ON THE FLORIDA WEST COAST AND FROM COCOA
BEACH FLORIDA TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA ON THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COAST.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM JUPITER INLET TO
COCOA BEACH FLORIDA...AND FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM CAPE
LOOKOUT TO CHINCOTEAGUE VIRGINIA INCLUDING PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE
SOUNDS AND FOR CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF SMITH POINT.

ELSEWHERE...ALL WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE DISCONTINUED.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.9N 82.2W AT 13/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 19 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 941 MB
EYE DIAMETER 5 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 40SE 40SW 25NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 75SE 75SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 150SE 150SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.9N 82.2W AT 13/2100Z
AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.1N 82.4W

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 29.7N 81.1W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 40SW 25NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE 60SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 33.9N 79.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 0NE 140SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 38.5N 76.3W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 75SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 0NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 43.5N 72.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 47.5N 66.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 49.5N 60.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.9N 82.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z

FORECASTER LAWRENCE