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#5031 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:58 AM 14.Aug.2004)
TCDAT3
HURRICANE CHARLEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT AUG 14 2004

A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FOUND MAX WINDS OF 88 KNOTS IN THE EASTERN
QUADRANT AND NOT MUCH TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER. THE MINIMUM
PRESSURE IS 994 MB. INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 75 KNOTS. THE
SHEAR IS HIGH BUT SINCE THE HURRICANE IS MOVING OVER WARM WATERS IT
COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE BIT BEFORE LANDFALL. THEREAFTER..CHARLEY
SHOULD WEAKEN AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL. IN FACT...SATELLITE IMAGES
SUGGEST THAT THE HURRICANE IS ALREADY INTERACTING WITH A FRONTAL
ZONE.

CHARLEY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 020 DEGREES AT 22
KNOTS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW AHEAD OF A LARGE TROUGH. THE
HURRICANE SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE FASTER DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS. THIS TRACK WOULD BRING THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA THIS MORNING. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE
TRACK MODELS WHICH UNANIMOUSLY TAKE THE HURRICANE NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/0900Z 31.2N 80.5W 75 KT
12HR VT 14/1800Z 34.3N 78.8W 70 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 15/0600Z 39.0N 75.5W 55 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 15/1800Z 43.5N 72.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 16/0600Z 47.0N 67.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 17/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW