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#5092 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:10 AM 14.Aug.2004)
TCDAT3
HURRICANE CHARLEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT AUG 14 2004

AIRCRAFT...RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT THE CENTER OF
CHARLEY IS ON THE COAST NEAR MYRTLE BEACH. RECENT FLIGHT LEVEL
WINDS FROM THE AIRCRAFT WERE NEAR 90 KT JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER
ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE WAS 989
MB. SO THE WIND IS KEPT AT HURRICANE FORCE AT 15Z. HOWEVER IT IS
NOT CLEAR THAT THE FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS ARE REACHING THE SURFACE AS
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS NEAR THE STRONG FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS ARE WAY
BELOW HURRICANE FORCE. IN ANY CASE...CHARLY WILL SOON WEAKEN BELOW
HURRICANE STRENGTH OVER LAND IF IT HAS NOT ALREADY DONE SO.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 025/24. THE TRACK SCENARIO REMAINS THE SAME
WITH AMID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVING EASTWARD.
THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT ABOUT A CONTINUED
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
AFTER 24 HOURS. CHARLEY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TRANSFORM TO AN
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM AS IT MOVES FURTHER NORTH.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/1500Z 33.2N 79.0W 65 KT
12HR VT 15/0000Z 36.7N 76.9W 50 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 15/1200Z 41.0N 74.0W 35 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 16/0000Z 44.6N 69.7W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 16/1200Z 47.0N 65.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 17/1200Z 49.0N 54.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 18/1200Z 49.0N 44.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 19/1200Z 49.0N 31.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL