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| #514210 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:35 PM 28.May.2012) TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012 500 PM EDT MON MAY 28 2012 SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT WINDS HAVE CONTINUED TO DECREASE AND SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW ONLY A FEW BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 25 KNOTS. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN 25 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS WHILE IT IS MOVING OVER LAND. THERE IS A CHANCE OF INTENSIFICATION...BUT NOT MUCH...IF THE CYCLONE MOVES BACK OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND CROSSES THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF STREAM BEYOND 48 HOURS. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT BERYL WILL LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN 96 HOURS AND WILL BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE THEREAFTER. THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 4 KNOTS. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS...AND A SHARP TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TOMORROW MORNING. THIS IS BASED ON THE EXPECTED ESTABLISHMENT OF MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES OVER THE UNITED STATES AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IN A DAY OR SO. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH SLOW MOVING BERYL CONTINUES TO BE VERY HEAVY RAINS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA TO SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/2100Z 30.8N 83.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 29/0600Z 31.2N 83.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 29/1800Z 32.1N 82.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 30/0600Z 33.0N 81.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 30/1800Z 34.0N 78.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 72H 31/1800Z 37.0N 70.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 01/1800Z 38.5N 58.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
