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| #514288 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:59 PM 28.May.2012) TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012 1100 PM EDT MON MAY 28 2012 WHILE MOST OF THE CIRCULATION OF BERYL IS INLAND...THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO DISPLAY A RATHER SYMMETRIC WIND FIELD IN ADDITION TO WELL-DEFINED BANDING AS OBSERVED BY THE WSR-88D RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY. PEAK WINDS IN THIS SYSTEM...NEAR 25 KT...HAVE BEEN OCCURRING ALONG THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA COASTS AS MEASURED BY SOME WEATHERFLOW WEATHER STATIONS. BERYL IS SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320/3. AS A VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY WEST OF THE GREAT LAKES APPROACHES THE CYCLONE...BERYL WILL TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST IN ABOUT A DAY. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN ACCELERATE IN THAT DIRECTION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS THEREAFTER. THE TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND VERY CLOSE TO THE TVCA CONSENSUS MODEL. AS LONG AS IT MAINTAINS ITS DEEP CONVECTION...BERYL IS ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN A TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS...WHILE IT IS MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...BERYL SHOULD BE REACHING THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AGAIN. THERE IS A NARROW SWATH OF WARM OCEAN WITHIN THE GULF STREAM BETWEEN THE COOL SHELF WATERS AND THE REMAINDER OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. BERYL HAS ABOUT A DAY OF TRAVERSING THE GULF STREAM WHILE THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS MODERATE TO ALLOW SOME REINTENSIFICATION BACK TO A TROPICAL STORM. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO A BLEND OF THE LGEM STATISTICAL AND HWRF DYNAMICAL MODELS AS WELL AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. IN ABOUT THREE DAYS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AS DEPICTED BY THE FSU CYCLONE PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS. ABSORPTION OF BERYL INTO A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IS INDICATED AFTER FOUR DAYS CONSISTENT WITH THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS. HOWEVER...OTHER MODELS SUGGEST THAT BERYL MAY BECOME THE DOMINANT VORTEX AND REMAIN INTACT LONGER. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH SLOW MOVING BERYL CONTINUES TO BE VERY HEAVY RAINS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 30.8N 83.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 12H 29/1200Z 31.3N 83.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 30/0000Z 32.1N 81.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 30/1200Z 33.2N 79.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 31/0000Z 34.6N 76.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 01/0000Z 37.5N 67.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 02/0000Z 40.0N 54.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA |
